--- title: "Spectral Arsenal case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Spectral Arsenal ($47.82) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 99.86% over 205 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc6 rendered: 2026-11-12T06:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Spectral Arsenal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc6) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Spectral Arsenal A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc6?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc6?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc6) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc6?window=all) Price · $47.82 · 79,670 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $43.04 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.86% · 205 openings, odds method Variance · 6.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 99.86% ±34.89 205 openings 30 days · 99.86% ±34.89 205 openings since tracking started · 99.86% ±34.89 205 openings 64.5% 100.0% 135.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc6?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc6?window=7d) | 205 | 99.86% ±34.9 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc6) | 205 | 99.86% ±34.9 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc6?window=all) | 205 | 99.86% ±34.9 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 205 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $1,740 2,899,489 BUX | 14.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $408 679,961 BUX | 25.1% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.29× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-well-worn) | 12.0% | $102 169,965 BUX | 28.4% | 21 | 24.6 | 0.85× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 20.0% | $40.30 67,139 BUX | 18.7% | 43 | 41.0 | 1.05× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 25.0% | $22.04 36,718 BUX | 12.8% | 57 | 51.3 | 1.11× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.80 1,332 BUX | 0.7% | 76 | 82.0 | 0.93× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $47.82 79,670 BUX $1,740 2,899,489 BUX 36.39x 2026-11-11 01:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc6) [USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $47.82 79,670 BUX $0.80 1,332 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-well-worn) Hidden $47.82 79,670 BUX $40.30 67,139 BUX 0.84x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $47.82 79,670 BUX $22.04 36,718 BUX 0.46x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $47.82 79,670 BUX $22.04 36,718 BUX 0.46x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $47.82 79,670 BUX $22.04 36,718 BUX 0.46x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $47.82 79,670 BUX $0.80 1,332 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $47.82 79,670 BUX $0.80 1,332 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $47.82 79,670 BUX $0.80 1,332 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $47.82 79,670 BUX $0.80 1,332 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 01:25 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $47.82 79,670 BUX $22.04 36,718 BUX 0.46x 2026-11-11 01:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $47.82 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.4% Covert 34.7% Mil Spec Grade 25.0% restricted 40.0% best hit $1,740 (36.39x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt