--- title: "Lava Eruption case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lava Eruption ($14.56) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 89.22% over 41 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc8 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Lava Eruption](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc8) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Lava Eruption A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc8?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc8?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc8) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc8?window=all) Price · $14.56 · 24,253 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $13.10 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.22% · 41 openings, odds method Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 41 openings · below min since tracking started · 41 openings · below min -0.5% 83.8% 168.0% **Small sample.** 41 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc8?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc8?window=7d) | 20 | 78.22% ±89.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc8) | 41 | 89.22% ±62.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc8?window=all) | 41 | 89.22% ±62.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 41 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,009 1,680,644 BUX | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $852 1,419,282 BUX | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $98.60 164,267 BUX | 37.6% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.49× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $73.44 122,351 BUX | 33.5% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.63× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 13.0% | $22.84 38,051 BUX | 22.7% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.94× | | [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.25 2,082 BUX | 1.9% | 9 | 8.2 | 1.10× | | [Sticker \| Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) | 23.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 1.2% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Wood Fired (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-factory-new) | 33.0% | $0.65 1,082 BUX | 1.6% | 14 | 13.5 | 1.03× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc8) [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $14.56 24,253 BUX $22.84 38,051 BUX 1.57x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) Hidden $14.56 24,253 BUX $1.25 2,082 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-factory-new) Hidden $14.56 24,253 BUX $0.65 1,082 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $14.56 24,253 BUX $22.84 38,051 BUX 1.57x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.56 24,253 BUX $73.44 122,351 BUX 5.04x 2026-11-08 23:44 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) Hidden $14.56 24,253 BUX $1.25 2,082 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-08 23:44 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-factory-new) Hidden $14.56 24,253 BUX $0.65 1,082 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-08 23:44 UTC [Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-romanovs-fire-foil) [vodkahund](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/vodkahund) $14.56 24,253 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-08 23:44 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-factory-new) Hidden $14.56 24,253 BUX $0.65 1,082 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-08 19:18 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-factory-new) Hidden $14.56 24,253 BUX $0.65 1,082 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-08 19:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $14.56 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 24.0% epic 0.0% Mil Spec Grade 53.0% exotic 23.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt