--- title: "Sanguine Shadows case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sanguine Shadows ($11.92) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 77.22% over 225 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc9 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Sanguine Shadows](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc9) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Sanguine Shadows A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc9?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc9?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc9) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc9?window=all) Price · $11.92 · 19,863 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $10.73 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.22% · 225 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.24% ±32.66 140 openings 7 days · 75.88% ±26.73 209 openings 30 days · 77.22% ±25.76 225 openings since tracking started · 77.22% ±25.76 225 openings 48.5% 85.0% 121.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc9?window=24h) | 140 | 88.24% ±32.7 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc9?window=7d) | 209 | 75.88% ±26.7 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc9) | 225 | 77.22% ±25.8 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc9?window=all) | 225 | 77.22% ±25.8 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 225 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $352 587,031 BUX | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Field-Tested) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $158 263,994 BUX | 10.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $139 232,107 BUX | 11.7% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $73.96 123,217 BUX | 17.2% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.71× | | [Sir Bloody Silent Darryl \| The Professionals agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-silent-darryl-the-professionals) | 11.8% | $14.50 24,157 BUX | 15.9% | 30 | 26.5 | 1.13× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 13.0% | $12.23 20,375 BUX | 14.8% | 31 | 29.3 | 1.06× | | [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 25.5% | $5.08 8,463 BUX | 12.1% | 61 | 57.4 | 1.06× | | [Sticker \| First Blood (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood-holo) | 45.5% | $3.45 5,747 BUX | 14.6% | 97 | 102.4 | 0.95× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dc9) [Sticker | First Blood (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood-holo) Hidden $11.92 19,863 BUX $3.45 5,747 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $11.92 19,863 BUX $12.23 20,375 BUX 1.03x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $11.92 19,863 BUX $5.08 8,463 BUX 0.43x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [Sticker | First Blood (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood-holo) [Meow](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Meow) $11.92 19,863 BUX $3.45 5,747 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [Sticker | First Blood (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood-holo) Hidden $11.92 19,863 BUX $3.45 5,747 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-11 09:33 UTC [USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $11.92 19,863 BUX $5.08 8,463 BUX 0.43x 2026-11-11 09:33 UTC [USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $11.92 19,863 BUX $5.08 8,463 BUX 0.43x 2026-11-11 09:33 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $11.92 19,863 BUX $12.23 20,375 BUX 1.03x 2026-11-11 09:33 UTC [Sticker | First Blood (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-first-blood-holo) Hidden $11.92 19,863 BUX $3.45 5,747 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-11 09:31 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $11.92 19,863 BUX $12.23 20,375 BUX 1.03x 2026-11-11 09:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $11.92 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Extraordinary 0.8% Covert 0.9% classified 2.5% red 11.8% Mil Spec Grade 13.0% Rare 25.5% Remarkable 45.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt