--- title: "Sandy Sabotage case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sandy Sabotage ($11.83) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 67.64% over 129 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dca rendered: 2026-11-12T04:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Sandy Sabotage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dca) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Sandy Sabotage A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dca?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dca?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dca) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dca?window=all) Price · $11.83 · 19,713 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $10.65 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 67.64% · 129 openings, odds method Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 69.08% ±33.59 112 openings 30 days · 67.64% ±31.29 129 openings since tracking started · 67.64% ±31.29 129 openings -0.5% 84.8% 170.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dca?window=24h) | 16 | 80.55% ±88.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dca?window=7d) | 112 | 69.08% ±33.6 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dca) | 129 | 67.64% ±31.3 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dca?window=all) | 129 | 67.64% ±31.3 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 129 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 256 | $153 254,214 BUX | 5.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $134 222,627 BUX | 6.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 77 | $100 167,016 BUX | 12.2% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Battle-Scarred) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $52.30 87,131 BUX | 22.2% | 2 | 5.8 | 0.34× | | [AUG \| Sand Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $51.23 85,349 BUX | 21.8% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.20× | | [P90 \| Desert Warfare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $6.87 11,445 BUX | 16.1% | 35 | 32.3 | 1.09× | | [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) | 25.0% | $5.79 9,646 BUX | 13.6% | 28 | 32.3 | 0.87× | | [P90 \| Desert DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 38.8% | $0.59 982 BUX | 2.1% | 56 | 50.0 | 1.12× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dca) [M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) Hidden $11.83 19,713 BUX $5.79 9,646 BUX 0.49x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [P90 | Desert DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.83 19,713 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [P90 | Desert DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.83 19,713 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [P90 | Desert DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-battle-scarred) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $11.83 19,713 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [P90 | Desert DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.83 19,713 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC [P90 | Desert DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.83 19,713 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC [AUG | Sand Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.83 19,713 BUX $51.23 85,349 BUX 4.33x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC [P90 | Desert Warfare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-battle-scarred) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $11.83 19,713 BUX $6.87 11,445 BUX 0.58x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Battle-Scarred) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.83 19,713 BUX $52.30 87,131 BUX 4.42x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC [P90 | Desert DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.83 19,713 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $11.83 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.4% industrial 0.5% Covert 1.3% Extraordinary 4.5% Restricted 4.5% Mil Spec Grade 25.0% covert 25.0% Consumer Grade 38.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt