--- title: "Flaming Fury case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Flaming Fury ($8.75) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 9 items with odds, observed 83.38% over 523 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcc rendered: 2026-11-12T06:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Flaming Fury](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcc) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Flaming Fury A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcc?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcc?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcc) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcc?window=all) Price · $8.75 · 14,574 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $7.87 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.38% · 523 openings, odds method Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 82.00% ±19.15 470 openings 30 days · 83.38% ±18.15 523 openings since tracking started · 83.38% ±18.15 523 openings 62.0% 82.0% 102.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcc?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcc?window=7d) | 470 | 82.00% ±19.1 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcc) | 523 | 83.38% ±18.2 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcc?window=all) | 523 | 83.38% ±18.2 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 523 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $408 679,961 BUX | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 526 | $262 437,191 BUX | 6.3% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $83.37 138,894 BUX | 13.6% | 8 | 6.7 | 1.20× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $79.59 132,596 BUX | 15.2% | 3 | 7.8 | 0.38× | | [Sticker \| Copenhagen Flames (Gold) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-copenhagen-flames-gold-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 11 | $14.09 23,473 BUX | 16.1% | 49 | 47.1 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 13.0% | $10.51 17,509 BUX | 17.4% | 67 | 68.0 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) | 23.0% | $4.54 7,563 BUX | 13.3% | 122 | 120.3 | 1.01× | | [Wildfire Pin pin · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/wildfire-pin) | 25.0% | $3.05 5,081 BUX | 9.7% | 140 | 130.8 | 1.07× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bunsen-burner-well-worn) | 27.0% | $2.04 3,398 BUX | 7.0% | 133 | 141.2 | 0.94× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcc) [Sticker | Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) Hidden $8.75 14,574 BUX $4.54 7,563 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-11 03:53 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bunsen-burner-well-worn) Hidden $8.75 14,574 BUX $2.04 3,398 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 03:53 UTC [Wildfire Pin pin · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/wildfire-pin) Hidden $8.75 14,574 BUX $3.05 5,081 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-11 03:53 UTC [Wildfire Pin pin · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/wildfire-pin) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $8.75 14,574 BUX $3.05 5,081 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-11 03:53 UTC [Sticker | Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) Hidden $8.75 14,574 BUX $4.54 7,563 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC [Wildfire Pin pin · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/wildfire-pin) Hidden $8.75 14,574 BUX $3.05 5,081 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bunsen-burner-well-worn) Hidden $8.75 14,574 BUX $2.04 3,398 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC [Sticker | Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $8.75 14,574 BUX $4.54 7,563 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC [Sticker | Copenhagen Flames (Gold) | Stockholm 2021 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-copenhagen-flames-gold-stockholm-2021) Hidden $8.75 14,574 BUX $14.09 23,473 BUX 1.61x 2026-11-11 03:50 UTC [Sticker | Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) Hidden $8.75 14,574 BUX $4.54 7,563 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-11 03:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $8.75 | 90.01% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 2.8% covert 0.2% Extraordinary 9.0% Mil Spec Grade 40.0% Rare 23.0% Remarkable 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt