--- title: "Rainbow Rush case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Rainbow Rush ($34.94) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 5 items with odds, observed 61.46% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcd rendered: 2026-11-12T04:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Rainbow Rush](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcd) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Rainbow Rush A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcd?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcd?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcd) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcd?window=all) Price · $34.94 · 58,202 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $31.44 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 61.46% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 6.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 42.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 57.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min -0.5% 92.0% 184.5% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 6.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcd?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcd?window=7d) | 16 | 61.46% ±122.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcd) | 16 | 61.46% ±122.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcd?window=all) | 16 | 61.46% ±122.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,040 1,732,406 BUX | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $836 1,393,042 BUX | 21.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $266 443,255 BUX | 16.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) | 40.0% | $35.83 59,692 BUX | 45.6% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.25× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 57.1% | $7.11 11,845 BUX | 12.9% | 8 | 9.1 | 0.88× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcd) [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $34.94 58,202 BUX $7.11 11,845 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-10 00:48 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $34.94 58,202 BUX $7.11 11,845 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-10 00:48 UTC [MAC-10 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.94 58,202 BUX $35.83 59,692 BUX 1.03x 2026-11-10 00:48 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [fajfussss](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/fajfussss) $34.94 58,202 BUX $7.11 11,845 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-10 00:48 UTC [MAC-10 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.94 58,202 BUX $35.83 59,692 BUX 1.03x 2026-11-08 00:07 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $34.94 58,202 BUX $7.11 11,845 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-08 00:07 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $34.94 58,202 BUX $7.11 11,845 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-08 00:07 UTC [MAC-10 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) [Mulli](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Mulli) $34.94 58,202 BUX $35.83 59,692 BUX 1.03x 2026-11-08 00:07 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $34.94 58,202 BUX $7.11 11,845 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-08 00:05 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $34.94 58,202 BUX $7.11 11,845 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-08 00:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $34.94 | 90.00% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.9% extraordinary 2.0% Mil Spec Grade 40.0% restricted 57.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt