--- title: "Deceptive Dreams case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Deceptive Dreams ($19.51) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 104.56% over 68 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcf rendered: 2026-11-12T05:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Deceptive Dreams](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcf) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Deceptive Dreams A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcf?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcf?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcf) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcf?window=all) Price · $19.51 · 32,497 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $17.56 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.56% · 68 openings, odds method Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 64 openings · below min 30 days · 68 openings · below min since tracking started · 68 openings · below min 61.0% 107.5% 154.0% **Small sample.** 68 openings and 5.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcf?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcf?window=7d) | 64 | 109.43% ±44.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcf) | 68 | 104.56% ±42.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcf?window=all) | 68 | 104.56% ±42.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $138 230,507 BUX | 59.1% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.37× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $28.89 48,130 BUX | 14.8% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.65× | | [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 16.5% | $9.43 15,710 BUX | 8.9% | 10 | 11.2 | 0.89× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 20.0% | $6.91 11,512 BUX | 7.9% | 13 | 13.6 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| Hypnotic Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k-foil) | 23.5% | $3.50 5,831 BUX | 4.7% | 16 | 16.0 | 1.00× | | [SSG 08 \| Mayan Dreams (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mayan-dreams-battle-scarred) | 23.5% | $3.48 5,797 BUX | 4.7% | 18 | 16.0 | 1.13× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dcf) [Sticker | Hypnotic Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k-foil) Hidden $19.51 32,497 BUX $3.50 5,831 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC [Sticker | Hypnotic Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k-foil) Hidden $19.51 32,497 BUX $3.50 5,831 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) Hidden $19.51 32,497 BUX $6.91 11,512 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $19.51 32,497 BUX $6.91 11,512 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC [Sticker | Hypnotic Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k-foil) Hidden $19.51 32,497 BUX $3.50 5,831 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [Sticker | Hypnotic Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k-foil) Hidden $19.51 32,497 BUX $3.50 5,831 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) Hidden $19.51 32,497 BUX $9.43 15,710 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [SSG 08 | Mayan Dreams (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mayan-dreams-battle-scarred) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $19.51 32,497 BUX $3.48 5,797 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) Hidden $19.51 32,497 BUX $6.91 11,512 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-09 21:49 UTC [Sticker | Hypnotic Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k-foil) Hidden $19.51 32,497 BUX $3.50 5,831 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-09 21:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $19.51 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 7.5% classified 29.0% restricted 16.5% exotic 23.5% Industrial Grade 23.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt