--- title: "Medieval Might case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Medieval Might ($30.91) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 50.18% over 38 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dd0 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Medieval Might](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dd0) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Medieval Might A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dd0?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dd0?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dd0) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dd0?window=all) Price · $30.91 · 51,489 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $27.82 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 50.18% · 38 openings, odds method Variance · 19.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 24 openings · below min 30 days · 38 openings · below min since tracking started · 38 openings · below min -0.5% 109.0% 218.5% **Small sample.** 38 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dd0?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dd0?window=7d) | 24 | 42.30% ±175.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dd0) | 38 | 50.18% ±139.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dd0?window=all) | 38 | 50.18% ±139.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,731 7,882,229 BUX | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $1,227 2,044,115 BUX | 19.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $98.81 164,617 BUX | 10.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $81.90 136,445 BUX | 11.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $75.63 125,999 BUX | 17.7% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $58.84 98,027 BUX | 15.9% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× | | [Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) | 13.0% | $12.96 21,591 BUX | 6.1% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) | 15.0% | $10.07 16,776 BUX | 5.4% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Guardian Dragon graffiti · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-guardian-dragon) | 25.3% | $2.83 4,714 BUX | 2.6% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.83× | | [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) | 25.3% | $1.78 2,965 BUX | 1.6% | 14 | 9.6 | 1.46× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4602ecb2b8af8a9dd0) [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) Hidden $30.91 51,489 BUX $75.63 125,999 BUX 2.45x 2026-11-09 22:45 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) Hidden $30.91 51,489 BUX $12.96 21,591 BUX 0.42x 2026-11-09 22:45 UTC [M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.91 51,489 BUX $1.78 2,965 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-09 22:45 UTC [M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) [strawhatya](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/strawhatya) $30.91 51,489 BUX $1.78 2,965 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-09 22:45 UTC [M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.91 51,489 BUX $1.78 2,965 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-09 22:43 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) Hidden $30.91 51,489 BUX $10.07 16,776 BUX 0.33x 2026-11-09 22:43 UTC [M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.91 51,489 BUX $1.78 2,965 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-09 22:43 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) [strawhatya](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/strawhatya) $30.91 51,489 BUX $12.96 21,591 BUX 0.42x 2026-11-09 22:43 UTC [P90 | Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.91 51,489 BUX $98.81 164,617 BUX 3.20x 2026-11-09 22:42 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Guardian Dragon graffiti · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-guardian-dragon) Hidden $30.91 51,489 BUX $2.83 4,714 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-09 22:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $30.91 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.6% Classified 8.0% classified 3.0% restricted 29.3% exotic 13.0% Restricted 15.0% Exotic 25.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt