--- title: "Dead Reckoning case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Dead Reckoning ($9.18) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 69.90% over 62 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd1 rendered: 2026-11-12T09:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Dead Reckoning](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd1) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Dead Reckoning A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd1?window=all) Price · $9.18 · 15,296 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $8.26 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 69.90% · 62 openings, odds method Variance · 10.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 52 openings · below min 30 days · 62 openings · below min since tracking started · 62 openings · below min -0.5% 74.8% 150.0% **Small sample.** 62 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd1?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd1?window=7d) | 52 | 59.24% ±86.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd1) | 62 | 69.90% ±79.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd1?window=all) | 62 | 69.90% ±79.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 62 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $372 620,251 BUX | 22.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Patch \| Dead Men patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-dead-men) | 1 in 29 | $73.52 122,484 BUX | 31.1% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.38× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $22.88 38,118 BUX | 16.6% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $10.07 16,776 BUX | 9.1% | 1 | 4.6 | 0.22× | | [P250 \| Bone Mask (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $5.41 9,013 BUX | 5.2% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.81× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-bone-machine-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $5.17 8,613 BUX | 5.0% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.81× | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Plague (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-plague-factory-new) | 11.5% | $3.12 5,197 BUX | 4.3% | 12 | 7.1 | 1.68× | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-skull-crusher-well-worn) | 13.0% | $2.42 4,031 BUX | 3.8% | 2 | 8.1 | 0.25× | | [SSG 08 \| Necropos (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | $0.47 783 BUX | 0.8% | 9 | 8.7 | 1.04× | | [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $0.46 766 BUX | 0.8% | 12 | 8.7 | 1.38× | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-bone-forged-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $0.36 599 BUX | 0.6% | 12 | 8.7 | 1.38× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd1) [SSG 08 | Necropos (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.18 15,296 BUX $0.47 783 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-10 00:44 UTC [P250 | Bone Mask (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-factory-new) Hidden $9.18 15,296 BUX $5.41 9,013 BUX 0.59x 2026-11-10 00:44 UTC [P250 | Bone Mask (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-factory-new) Hidden $9.18 15,296 BUX $5.41 9,013 BUX 0.59x 2026-11-10 00:44 UTC [Souvenir XM1014 | Bone Machine (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-bone-machine-field-tested) [fajfussss](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/fajfussss) $9.18 15,296 BUX $5.17 8,613 BUX 0.56x 2026-11-10 00:44 UTC [StatTrak™ AUG | Plague (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-plague-factory-new) Hidden $9.18 15,296 BUX $3.12 5,197 BUX 0.34x 2026-11-10 00:39 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-skull-crusher-well-worn) Hidden $9.18 15,296 BUX $2.42 4,031 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-10 00:39 UTC [XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.18 15,296 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-10 00:39 UTC [StatTrak™ AUG | Plague (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-plague-factory-new) [fajfussss](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/fajfussss) $9.18 15,296 BUX $3.12 5,197 BUX 0.34x 2026-11-10 00:39 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-well-worn) Hidden $9.18 15,296 BUX $22.88 38,118 BUX 2.49x 2026-11-09 21:23 UTC [SSG 08 | Necropos (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-battle-scarred) [Dendak](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Dendak) $9.18 15,296 BUX $0.47 783 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-09 21:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $9.18 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.5% remarkable 3.5% Restricted 13.5% consumer 8.0% Mil Spec Grade 33.5% Classified 13.0% mil spec 14.0% violet 14.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt