--- title: "Essentials Ensemble case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Essentials Ensemble ($1.78) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 10 items with odds, observed 83.64% over 2,723 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd2 rendered: 2026-11-12T06:16Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Essentials Ensemble](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd2) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Essentials Ensemble A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd2?window=all) Price · $1.78 · 2,972 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $1.61 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.64% · 2,723 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 72.38% ±24.17 137 openings 7 days · 81.32% ±7.45 1,441 openings 30 days · 83.64% ±5.42 2,723 openings since tracking started · 83.64% ±5.42 2,723 openings 47.5% 72.2% 97.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.01% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.22% – 89.06%, 2,723 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd2?window=24h) | 137 | 72.38% ±24.2 | −1.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd2?window=7d) | 1,441 | 81.32% ±7.45 | −2.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd2) | 2,723 | 83.64% ±5.42 | −2.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd2?window=all) | 2,723 | 83.64% ±5.42 | −2.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,723 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $12.21 20,341 BUX | 19.0% | 60 | 68.1 | 0.88× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $10.42 17,359 BUX | 22.7% | 72 | 95.3 | 0.76× | | [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $3.55 5,914 BUX | 12.2% | 157 | 149.8 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-metal-flowers-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $3.02 5,031 BUX | 11.3% | 163 | 163.4 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $1.14 1,899 BUX | 6.4% | 244 | 245.1 | 1.00× | | [AUG \| Plague (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1.01 1,682 BUX | 6.0% | 257 | 258.7 | 0.99× | | [Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-factory-new) | 14.0% | $0.82 1,366 BUX | 7.1% | 384 | 381.2 | 1.01× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Framework (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-framework-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.68 1,132 BUX | 6.3% | 394 | 408.4 | 0.96× | | [SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-field-tested) | 17.0% | $0.52 866 BUX | 5.5% | 491 | 462.9 | 1.06× | | [P90 \| Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $0.31 516 BUX | 3.5% | 501 | 490.1 | 1.02× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd2) [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-metal-flowers-well-worn) Hidden $1.78 2,972 BUX $3.02 5,031 BUX 1.69x 2026-11-12 00:56 UTC [MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) Hidden $1.78 2,972 BUX $3.55 5,914 BUX 1.99x 2026-11-12 00:56 UTC [MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) Hidden $1.78 2,972 BUX $3.55 5,914 BUX 1.99x 2026-11-12 00:56 UTC [SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-field-tested) [user-70fc8a](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-70fc8a) $1.78 2,972 BUX $0.52 866 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-12 00:56 UTC [P90 | Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.78 2,972 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-12 00:55 UTC [P90 | Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.78 2,972 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-12 00:55 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.78 2,972 BUX $10.42 17,359 BUX 5.84x 2026-11-12 00:55 UTC [Tec-9 | Jambiya (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-factory-new) [user-70fc8a](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-70fc8a) $1.78 2,972 BUX $0.82 1,366 BUX 0.46x 2026-11-12 00:55 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.78 2,972 BUX $1.14 1,899 BUX 0.64x 2026-11-12 00:08 UTC [P90 | Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.78 2,972 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-12 00:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $1.78 | 90.01% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Mil Spec Grade 58.0% Classified 3.5% mil spec 5.5% Consumer Grade 15.0% blue 18.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt