--- title: "Bubble Blitz case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Bubble Blitz ($19.61) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 80.41% over 32 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd4 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Bubble Blitz](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd4) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Bubble Blitz A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd4?window=all) Price · $19.61 · 32,673 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $17.65 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.41% · 32 openings, odds method Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 32 openings · below min 30 days · 32 openings · below min since tracking started · 32 openings · below min 19.0% 80.5% 142.0% **Small sample.** 32 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd4?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd4?window=7d) | 32 | 80.41% ±60.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd4) | 32 | 80.41% ±60.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd4?window=all) | 32 | 80.41% ±60.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $271 450,702 BUX | 15.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $70.57 117,569 BUX | 20.0% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.88× | | [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $70.24 117,019 BUX | 19.9% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $52.41 87,315 BUX | 17.8% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $35.00 58,310 BUX | 15.9% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× | | [MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-field-tested) | 36.5% | $3.62 6,030 BUX | 7.5% | 12 | 11.7 | 1.03× | | [PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) | 38.5% | $1.66 2,765 BUX | 3.6% | 13 | 12.3 | 1.06× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd4) [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.61 32,673 BUX $35.00 58,310 BUX 1.78x 2026-11-09 21:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) Hidden $19.61 32,673 BUX $1.66 2,765 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-09 21:23 UTC [MAG-7 | Hard Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-field-tested) Hidden $19.61 32,673 BUX $3.62 6,030 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-09 21:23 UTC [MAG-7 | Hard Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-field-tested) [komnuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/komnuu) $19.61 32,673 BUX $3.62 6,030 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-09 21:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) Hidden $19.61 32,673 BUX $1.66 2,765 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-09 21:21 UTC [MAG-7 | Hard Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-field-tested) Hidden $19.61 32,673 BUX $3.62 6,030 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-09 21:21 UTC [MAG-7 | Hard Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-field-tested) Hidden $19.61 32,673 BUX $3.62 6,030 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-09 21:21 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) [komnuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/komnuu) $19.61 32,673 BUX $52.41 87,315 BUX 2.67x 2026-11-09 21:21 UTC [PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) Hidden $19.61 32,673 BUX $1.66 2,765 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [MAG-7 | Hard Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-field-tested) Hidden $19.61 32,673 BUX $3.62 6,030 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $19.61 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.0% restricted 11.0% classified 5.0% mil spec 75.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt