---
title: "The Musical case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Musical ($2.70) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 92.38% over 1,245 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd5
rendered: 2026-11-12T08:00Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [The Musical](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd5)

# [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · The Musical

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd5?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd5?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd5) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd5?window=all)

Price · $2.70 · 4,490 BUX

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $2.43 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.38% · 1,245 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 44 openings · below min

7 days · 94.74% ±20.67 512 openings

30 days · 92.38% ±13.25 1,245 openings

since tracking started · 92.38% ±13.25 1,245 openings

-0.5% 68.3% 137.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd5?window=24h) | 44 | 65.97% ±70.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd5?window=7d) | 512 | 94.74% ±20.7 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd5) | 1,245 | 92.38% ±13.3 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd5?window=all) | 1,245 | 92.38% ±13.3 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,245 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $87.91 146,458 BUX | 18.1% | 8 | 6.2 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Knock2, dashstar\* music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-knock2-dashstar) | 1 in 67 | $14.37 23,940 BUX | 8.9% | 17 | 18.7 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| AWOLNATION, I Am music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-awolnation-i-am) | 1 in 40 | $4.97 8,280 BUX | 5.1% | 38 | 31.1 | 1.22× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| ISOxo, inhuman music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-isoxo-inhuman) | 1 in 40 | $4.90 8,163 BUX | 5.1% | 24 | 31.1 | 0.77× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| The Verkkars, EZ4ENCE music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-the-verkkars-ez4ence) | 1 in 40 | $4.80 7,996 BUX | 4.9% | 33 | 31.1 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Noisia, Sharpened music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-noisia-sharpened) | 1 in 25 | $3.95 6,580 BUX | 6.5% | 54 | 49.8 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Daniel Sadowski, The 8-Bit Kit music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-daniel-sadowski-the-8-bit-kit) | 1 in 25 | $3.82 6,364 BUX | 6.3% | 37 | 49.8 | 0.74× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Beartooth, Disgusting music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-beartooth-disgusting) | 1 in 25 | $3.78 6,297 BUX | 6.2% | 46 | 49.8 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Skog, Metal music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-skog-metal) | 1 in 25 | $3.58 5,964 BUX | 5.9% | 47 | 49.8 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Proxy, Battlepack music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-proxy-battlepack) | 1 in 25 | $3.51 5,847 BUX | 5.8% | 44 | 49.8 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Sasha, LNOE music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-sasha-lnoe) | 1 in 25 | $3.37 5,614 BUX | 5.6% | 47 | 49.8 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Roam, Backbone music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-roam-backbone) | 1 in 15 | $1.32 2,199 BUX | 3.5% | 97 | 80.9 | 1.20× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| 3kliksphilip, Heading for the Source music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-3kliksphilip-heading-for-the-source) | 1 in 17 | $1.04 1,732 BUX | 2.6% | 79 | 74.7 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Juelz, Shooters music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-juelz-shooters) | 34.0% | $0.86 1,432 BUX | 12.0% | 423 | 423.3 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Beartooth, Aggressive music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-beartooth-aggressive) | 10.0% | $0.42 699 BUX | 1.7% | 127 | 124.5 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Hundredth, FREE music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-hundredth-free) | 10.0% | $0.41 683 BUX | 1.7% | 124 | 124.5 | 1.00× |

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd5)

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Juelz, Shooters music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-juelz-shooters) Hidden $2.70 4,490 BUX $0.86 1,432 BUX 0.32x 2026-11-11 23:26 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Hundredth, FREE music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-hundredth-free) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $2.70 4,490 BUX $0.41 683 BUX 0.15x 2026-11-11 23:26 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Hundredth, FREE music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-hundredth-free) Hidden $2.70 4,490 BUX $0.41 683 BUX 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Knock2, dashstar\* music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-knock2-dashstar) [Ludomanas](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Ludomanas) $2.70 4,490 BUX $14.37 23,940 BUX 5.33x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Skog, Metal music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-skog-metal) Hidden $2.70 4,490 BUX $3.58 5,964 BUX 1.33x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Beartooth, Aggressive music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-beartooth-aggressive) [Ludomanas](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Ludomanas) $2.70 4,490 BUX $0.42 699 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Beartooth, Aggressive music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-beartooth-aggressive) Hidden $2.70 4,490 BUX $0.42 699 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Juelz, Shooters music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-juelz-shooters) [Ludomanas](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Ludomanas) $2.70 4,490 BUX $0.86 1,432 BUX 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Juelz, Shooters music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-juelz-shooters) Hidden $2.70 4,490 BUX $0.86 1,432 BUX 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Skog, Metal music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-skog-metal) [Ludomanas](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Ludomanas) $2.70 4,490 BUX $3.58 5,964 BUX 1.33x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $2.70 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.5% High Grade 97.0% high 2.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt