---
title: "Connect with Nature case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Connect with Nature ($7.48) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 101.27% over 210 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd7
rendered: 2026-11-12T07:44Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Connect with Nature](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd7)

# [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Connect with Nature

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd7?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd7?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd7) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd7?window=all)

Price · $7.48 · 12,462 BUX

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $6.73 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 101.27% · 210 openings, odds method

Variance · 13.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 18 openings · below min

7 days · 113.27% ±61.85 132 openings

30 days · 101.27% ±49.03 210 openings

since tracking started · 101.27% ±49.03 210 openings

-0.5% 106.8% 214.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd7?window=24h) | 18 | 46.07% ±167.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd7?window=7d) | 132 | 113.27% ±61.8 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd7) | 210 | 101.27% ±49.0 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd7?window=all) | 210 | 101.27% ±49.0 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 210 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $527 878,231 BUX | 7.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $358 596,827 BUX | 10.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $134 223,377 BUX | 6.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $115 191,673 BUX | 5.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $94.80 157,936 BUX | 5.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $87.52 145,808 BUX | 5.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $69.15 115,203 BUX | 5.1% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.90× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $31.49 52,462 BUX | 22.5% | 10 | 10.1 | 0.99× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $10.59 17,642 BUX | 7.9% | 8 | 10.5 | 0.76× |
| [P90 \| Tiger Pit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $8.85 14,744 BUX | 6.6% | 8 | 10.5 | 0.76× |
| [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $7.88 13,128 BUX | 7.0% | 11 | 12.6 | 0.87× |
| [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $3.14 5,231 BUX | 4.7% | 23 | 21.0 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Oceanic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-oceanic-factory-new) | 13.0% | $0.82 1,366 BUX | 1.6% | 29 | 27.3 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Wood Fired (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-factory-new) | 13.0% | $0.65 1,082 BUX | 1.3% | 30 | 27.3 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) | 16.0% | $0.64 1,066 BUX | 1.5% | 33 | 33.6 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.41 683 BUX | 1.5% | 53 | 52.5 | 1.01× |

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $7.48 12,462 BUX $527 878,231 BUX 70.47x 2026-11-07 07:30 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd7)

[AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.48 12,462 BUX $0.41 683 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-12 00:42 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Mulli](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Mulli) $7.48 12,462 BUX $10.59 17,642 BUX 1.42x 2026-11-12 00:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) Hidden $7.48 12,462 BUX $0.64 1,066 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC

[MP7 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.48 12,462 BUX $3.14 5,231 BUX 0.42x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC

[MP7 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.48 12,462 BUX $3.14 5,231 BUX 0.42x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $7.48 12,462 BUX $0.65 1,082 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-wood-fired-factory-new) Hidden $7.48 12,462 BUX $0.65 1,082 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.48 12,462 BUX $0.41 683 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-oceanic-factory-new) Hidden $7.48 12,462 BUX $0.82 1,366 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $7.48 12,462 BUX $0.41 683 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $7.48 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.8% Covert 1.1% classified 5.1% Consumer Grade 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 53.0% Restricted 10.0% restricted 25.0% best hit $527 (70.47x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt