--- title: "Icebound Arsenal case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Icebound Arsenal ($9.72) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 83.49% over 111 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd8 rendered: 2026-11-12T09:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Icebound Arsenal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd8) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Icebound Arsenal A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd8?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd8?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd8) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd8?window=all) Price · $9.72 · 16,199 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $8.75 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.49% · 111 openings, odds method Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 73 openings · below min 30 days · 83.49% ±37.88 111 openings since tracking started · 83.49% ±37.88 111 openings 41.5% 89.0% 136.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd8?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd8?window=7d) | 73 | 89.05% ±46.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd8) | 111 | 83.49% ±37.9 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd8?window=all) | 111 | 83.49% ±37.9 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 111 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $236 393,292 BUX | 13.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $62.72 104,491 BUX | 21.5% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.20× | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 16.0% | $15.57 25,939 BUX | 28.5% | 19 | 17.8 | 1.07× | | [Galil AR \| Winter Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-minimal-wear) | 16.0% | $14.08 23,457 BUX | 25.7% | 18 | 17.8 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-factory-new) | 32.3% | $1.85 3,082 BUX | 6.8% | 33 | 35.8 | 0.92× | | [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 32.3% | $1.08 1,799 BUX | 4.0% | 37 | 35.8 | 1.03× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd8) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-factory-new) Hidden $9.72 16,199 BUX $1.85 3,082 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-10 20:51 UTC [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $9.72 16,199 BUX $1.08 1,799 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-10 20:51 UTC [G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-factory-new) Hidden $9.72 16,199 BUX $62.72 104,491 BUX 6.45x 2026-11-10 20:51 UTC [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) [terney](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/terney) $9.72 16,199 BUX $1.08 1,799 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-10 20:51 UTC [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $9.72 16,199 BUX $1.08 1,799 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-10 19:39 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-factory-new) Hidden $9.72 16,199 BUX $1.85 3,082 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-10 19:39 UTC [Galil AR | Winter Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.72 16,199 BUX $14.08 23,457 BUX 1.45x 2026-11-10 19:39 UTC [StatTrak™ AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) [user-62df08](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-62df08) $9.72 16,199 BUX $15.57 25,939 BUX 1.60x 2026-11-10 19:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $9.72 16,199 BUX $1.08 1,799 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-10 19:34 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-factory-new) Hidden $9.72 16,199 BUX $1.85 3,082 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-10 19:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $9.72 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.5% industrial 3.0% restricted 48.3% Industrial Grade 16.0% Mil Spec Grade 32.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt