--- title: "Vibrant Velocity case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Vibrant Velocity ($15.80) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 120.23% over 237 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd9 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Vibrant Velocity](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd9) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Vibrant Velocity A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd9?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd9?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd9) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd9?window=all) Price · $15.80 · 26,327 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $14.22 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 120.23% · 237 openings, odds method Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 121.66% ±26.02 233 openings 30 days · 120.23% ±25.80 237 openings since tracking started · 120.23% ±25.80 237 openings -0.5% 127.5% 255.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.43% – 146.03%, 237 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd9?window=24h) | 4 | 56.13% ±198.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd9?window=7d) | 233 | 121.66% ±26.0 | +2.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd9) | 237 | 120.23% ±25.8 | +2.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd9?window=all) | 237 | 120.23% ±25.8 | +2.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 237 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $280 465,746 BUX | 7.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $244 406,404 BUX | 8.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $128 212,931 BUX | 27.9% | 15 | 7.3 | 2.04× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $32.99 54,961 BUX | 13.9% | 11 | 14.2 | 0.77× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 10.0% | $12.87 21,441 BUX | 9.0% | 29 | 23.7 | 1.22× | | [Sticker \| Neon Opal Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neon-opal-strafe-holo) | 20.0% | $8.67 14,444 BUX | 12.2% | 46 | 47.4 | 0.97× | | [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-factory-new) | 60.0% | $4.87 8,113 BUX | 20.5% | 133 | 142.2 | 0.94× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dd9) [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) Hidden $15.80 26,327 BUX $12.87 21,441 BUX 0.81x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-factory-new) Hidden $15.80 26,327 BUX $4.87 8,113 BUX 0.31x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-factory-new) Hidden $15.80 26,327 BUX $4.87 8,113 BUX 0.31x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $15.80 26,327 BUX $12.87 21,441 BUX 0.81x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-factory-new) Hidden $15.80 26,327 BUX $4.87 8,113 BUX 0.31x 2026-11-11 01:14 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-factory-new) Hidden $15.80 26,327 BUX $4.87 8,113 BUX 0.31x 2026-11-11 01:14 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-factory-new) Hidden $15.80 26,327 BUX $4.87 8,113 BUX 0.31x 2026-11-11 01:14 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $15.80 26,327 BUX $4.87 8,113 BUX 0.31x 2026-11-11 01:14 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $15.80 26,327 BUX $128 212,931 BUX 8.09x 2026-11-11 01:14 UTC [Sticker | Neon Opal Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neon-opal-strafe-holo) Hidden $15.80 26,327 BUX $8.67 14,444 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-11 01:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $15.80 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.5% restricted 70.5% remarkable 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt