---
title: "Rainforest Rumble case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Rainforest Rumble ($8.65) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 248.98% over 91 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dda
rendered: 2026-11-12T07:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Rainforest Rumble](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dda)

# [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Rainforest Rumble

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dda?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dda?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dda) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dda?window=all)

Price · $8.65 · 14,403 BUX

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $7.78 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 248.98% · 91 openings, odds method

Variance · 29.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 20 openings · below min

7 days · 81 openings · below min

30 days · 91 openings · below min

since tracking started · 91 openings · below min

-0.5% 196.5% 393.5%

**Small sample.** 91 openings and 6.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dda?window=24h) | 20 | 70.35% ±236.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dda?window=7d) | 81 | 275.25% ±117.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dda) | 91 | 248.98% ±111.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dda?window=all) | 91 | 248.98% ±111.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 91 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,443 2,403,721 BUX | 18.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $47.57 79,251 BUX | 21.4% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $41.56 69,238 BUX | 18.7% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× |
| [M249 \| Jungle DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $13.45 22,407 BUX | 13.0% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.59× |
| [Jungle Rebel \| Elite Crew agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/jungle-rebel-elite-crew) | 1 in 13 | $7.87 13,111 BUX | 8.1% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-field-tested) | 11.6% | $4.38 7,297 BUX | 6.5% | 11 | 10.6 | 1.04× |
| [M249 \| Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-minimal-wear) | 12.9% | $3.20 5,331 BUX | 5.3% | 7 | 11.7 | 0.60× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Jungle Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-minimal-wear) | 12.9% | $3.16 5,264 BUX | 5.2% | 16 | 11.7 | 1.36× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) | 40.0% | $0.63 1,049 BUX | 3.2% | 39 | 36.4 | 1.07× |

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.65 14,403 BUX $1,443 2,403,721 BUX 166.9x 2026-11-07 07:00 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dda)

[StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) Hidden $8.65 14,403 BUX $0.63 1,049 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) Hidden $8.65 14,403 BUX $0.63 1,049 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Jungle Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.65 14,403 BUX $3.16 5,264 BUX 0.37x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) [Puzamah](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Puzamah) $8.65 14,403 BUX $0.63 1,049 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC

[XM1014 | Jungle (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $8.65 14,403 BUX $47.57 79,251 BUX 5.50x 2026-11-11 21:31 UTC

[StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) Hidden $8.65 14,403 BUX $0.63 1,049 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-11 21:31 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Jungle Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.65 14,403 BUX $3.16 5,264 BUX 0.37x 2026-11-11 21:31 UTC

[M249 | Jungle DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $8.65 14,403 BUX $13.45 22,407 BUX 1.56x 2026-11-11 21:31 UTC

[StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-jungle-slipstream-factory-new) Hidden $8.65 14,403 BUX $0.63 1,049 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-field-tested) Hidden $8.65 14,403 BUX $4.38 7,297 BUX 0.51x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $8.65 | 90.00% | 9 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% consumer 11.0% Consumer Grade 29.3% distinguished 8.0% industrial 11.6% Mil Spec Grade 40.0% best hit $1,443 (166.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt