--- title: "Covert Operations case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Covert Operations ($30.46) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 79.08% over 156 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ddb rendered: 2026-11-12T07:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Covert Operations](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ddb) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Covert Operations A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ddb?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ddb?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ddb) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ddb?window=all) Price · $30.46 · 50,744 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $27.41 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.08% · 156 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 82.05% ±28.56 140 openings 30 days · 79.08% ±27.05 156 openings since tracking started · 79.08% ±27.05 156 openings 5.5% 65.8% 126.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ddb?window=24h) | 32 | 65.72% ±59.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ddb?window=7d) | 140 | 82.05% ±28.6 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ddb) | 156 | 79.08% ±27.1 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ddb?window=all) | 156 | 79.08% ±27.1 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 156 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $283 470,778 BUX | 10.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× | | [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $248 412,484 BUX | 13.5% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.28× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $187 311,658 BUX | 17.1% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× | | [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $137 228,008 BUX | 17.5% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.55× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $41.12 68,505 BUX | 10.5% | 10 | 10.9 | 0.92× | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $25.13 41,866 BUX | 9.2% | 15 | 15.6 | 0.96× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 10.0% | $24.16 40,250 BUX | 8.8% | 16 | 15.6 | 1.03× | | [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) | 64.5% | $5.58 9,296 BUX | 13.1% | 105 | 100.6 | 1.04× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ddb) [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) Hidden $30.46 50,744 BUX $5.58 9,296 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) Hidden $30.46 50,744 BUX $5.58 9,296 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) Hidden $30.46 50,744 BUX $5.58 9,296 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-well-worn) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $30.46 50,744 BUX $248 412,484 BUX 8.13x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) Hidden $30.46 50,744 BUX $5.58 9,296 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) Hidden $30.46 50,744 BUX $5.58 9,296 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) Hidden $30.46 50,744 BUX $5.58 9,296 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $30.46 50,744 BUX $5.58 9,296 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) Hidden $30.46 50,744 BUX $5.58 9,296 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 14:40 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) Hidden $30.46 50,744 BUX $5.58 9,296 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 14:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $30.46 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 11.0% classified 76.0% Covert 2.5% Classified 10.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt