--- title: "Chilled Gems case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Chilled Gems ($22.42) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 76.90% over 212 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dde rendered: 2026-11-12T06:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Chilled Gems](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dde) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Chilled Gems A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dde?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dde?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dde) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dde?window=all) Price · $22.42 · 37,344 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $20.17 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.90% · 212 openings, odds method Variance · 11.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 32 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 75.59% ±49.93 170 openings 30 days · 76.90% ±44.71 212 openings since tracking started · 76.90% ±44.71 212 openings 25.0% 75.5% 126.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dde?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dde?window=7d) | 170 | 75.59% ±49.9 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dde) | 212 | 76.90% ±44.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dde?window=all) | 212 | 76.90% ±44.7 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 212 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,726 2,875,582 BUX | 6.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $537 894,308 BUX | 8.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $324 540,150 BUX | 11.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $261 434,792 BUX | 12.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.94× | | [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $251 418,032 BUX | 12.4% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $205 340,813 BUX | 13.2% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.45× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 20.6% | $22.31 37,168 BUX | 22.8% | 55 | 43.7 | 1.26× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 35.0% | $4.66 7,763 BUX | 8.1% | 73 | 74.2 | 0.98× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) | 40.0% | $2.26 3,765 BUX | 4.5% | 76 | 84.8 | 0.90× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dde) [StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $22.42 37,344 BUX $4.66 7,763 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-11 01:34 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $22.42 37,344 BUX $4.66 7,763 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-11 01:34 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.42 37,344 BUX $22.31 37,168 BUX 1.00x 2026-11-11 01:34 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $22.42 37,344 BUX $22.31 37,168 BUX 1.00x 2026-11-11 01:34 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) Hidden $22.42 37,344 BUX $2.26 3,765 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $22.42 37,344 BUX $4.66 7,763 BUX 0.21x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) Hidden $22.42 37,344 BUX $2.26 3,765 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $22.42 37,344 BUX $2.26 3,765 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) Hidden $22.42 37,344 BUX $2.26 3,765 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 01:32 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) Hidden $22.42 37,344 BUX $2.26 3,765 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 01:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $22.42 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.4% Covert 2.0% restricted 2.0% classified 60.6% Mythical 35.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt