--- title: "Dream Weaver case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Dream Weaver ($9.98) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 88.76% over 127 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de0 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Dream Weaver](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de0) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Dream Weaver A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de0?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de0?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de0) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de0?window=all) Price · $9.98 · 16,626 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $8.98 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.76% · 127 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 70 openings · below min 30 days · 88.76% ±19.06 127 openings since tracking started · 88.76% ±19.06 127 openings 56.0% 94.5% 133.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de0?window=24h) | 32 | 94.38% ±38.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de0?window=7d) | 70 | 84.37% ±25.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de0) | 127 | 88.76% ±19.1 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de0?window=all) | 127 | 88.76% ±19.1 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 127 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $40.23 67,023 BUX | 9.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× | | [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $39.22 65,340 BUX | 8.7% | 5 | 2.5 | 1.97× | | [SSG 08 \| Mayan Dreams (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mayan-dreams-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $37.67 62,758 BUX | 16.8% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.18× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $25.03 41,699 BUX | 22.3% | 6 | 10.2 | 0.59× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) | 16.0% | $10.07 16,776 BUX | 17.9% | 22 | 20.3 | 1.08× | | [P250 \| Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) | 17.5% | $8.38 13,961 BUX | 16.3% | 18 | 22.2 | 0.81× | | [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) | 22.5% | $2.71 4,514 BUX | 6.8% | 26 | 28.6 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Phantom (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-well-worn) | 28.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 2.2% | 42 | 35.6 | 1.18× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de0) [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) Hidden $9.98 16,626 BUX $10.07 16,776 BUX 1.01x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-well-worn) Hidden $9.98 16,626 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-well-worn) Hidden $9.98 16,626 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC [P250 | Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) [komnuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/komnuu) $9.98 16,626 BUX $8.38 13,961 BUX 0.84x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC [P250 | Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) Hidden $9.98 16,626 BUX $8.38 13,961 BUX 0.84x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-well-worn) Hidden $9.98 16,626 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC [P250 | Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) Hidden $9.98 16,626 BUX $8.38 13,961 BUX 0.84x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) [komnuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/komnuu) $9.98 16,626 BUX $10.07 16,776 BUX 1.01x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) Hidden $9.98 16,626 BUX $10.07 16,776 BUX 1.01x 2026-11-11 20:26 UTC [USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-factory-new) Hidden $9.98 16,626 BUX $39.22 65,340 BUX 3.93x 2026-11-11 20:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $9.98 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 10.0% Restricted 68.5% Industrial Grade 4.0% #d32ee6 17.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt