--- title: "Springtime Surprise case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Springtime Surprise ($6.94) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 86.30% over 458 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de1 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Springtime Surprise](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de1) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Springtime Surprise A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de1?window=all) Price · $6.94 · 11,559 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $6.24 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.30% · 458 openings, odds method Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 20 openings · below min 7 days · 78.21% ±21.73 386 openings 30 days · 86.30% ±19.95 458 openings since tracking started · 86.30% ±19.95 458 openings -0.5% 71.3% 143.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de1?window=24h) | 20 | 46.82% ±95.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de1?window=7d) | 386 | 78.21% ±21.7 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de1) | 458 | 86.30% ±19.9 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de1?window=all) | 458 | 86.30% ±19.9 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 458 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $74.64 124,350 BUX | 17.9% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $72.90 121,451 BUX | 17.5% | 2 | 6.9 | 0.29× | | [MP7 \| Teal Blossom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $72.33 120,501 BUX | 17.4% | 11 | 6.9 | 1.60× | | [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $12.62 21,024 BUX | 30.3% | 69 | 68.7 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Killjoy (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-killjoy-holo) | 18.5% | $2.56 4,264 BUX | 7.6% | 85 | 84.7 | 1.00× | | [Patch \| Chicken Lover patch · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-chicken-lover) | 20.5% | $1.01 1,682 BUX | 3.3% | 82 | 93.9 | 0.87× | | [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) | 20.5% | $0.99 1,649 BUX | 3.2% | 98 | 93.9 | 1.04× | | [Sticker \| Headless Chicken sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-headless-chicken) | 21.0% | $0.81 1,349 BUX | 2.7% | 105 | 96.2 | 1.09× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de1) [Sticker | Killjoy (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-killjoy-holo) Hidden $6.94 11,559 BUX $2.56 4,264 BUX 0.37x 2026-11-12 00:21 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $6.94 11,559 BUX $0.99 1,649 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 00:21 UTC [Sticker | Killjoy (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-killjoy-holo) Hidden $6.94 11,559 BUX $2.56 4,264 BUX 0.37x 2026-11-12 00:21 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $6.94 11,559 BUX $0.99 1,649 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-12 00:21 UTC [Sticker | Killjoy (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-killjoy-holo) Hidden $6.94 11,559 BUX $2.56 4,264 BUX 0.37x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Sticker | Headless Chicken sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-headless-chicken) Hidden $6.94 11,559 BUX $0.81 1,349 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $6.94 11,559 BUX $0.99 1,649 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Patch | Chicken Lover patch · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-chicken-lover) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $6.94 11,559 BUX $1.01 1,682 BUX 0.15x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Sticker | Killjoy (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-killjoy-holo) Hidden $6.94 11,559 BUX $2.56 4,264 BUX 0.37x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [Sticker | Headless Chicken sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-headless-chicken) Hidden $6.94 11,559 BUX $0.81 1,349 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $6.94 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Mil Spec Grade 23.5% Covert 1.5% mil spec 15.0% Remarkable 39.0% High Grade 21.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt