--- title: "Pathfinder's Pack case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Pathfinder's Pack ($14.24) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 105.15% over 120 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de3 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Pathfinder's Pack](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de3) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Pathfinder's Pack A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de3?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de3?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de3) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de3?window=all) Price · $14.24 · 23,724 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $12.82 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 105.15% · 120 openings, odds method Variance · 12.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 108 openings · below min 30 days · 120 openings · below min since tracking started · 120 openings · below min -0.5% 178.8% 358.0% **Small sample.** 120 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de3?window=24h) | 4 | 7.71% ±349.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de3?window=7d) | 108 | 111.44% ±67.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de3) | 120 | 105.15% ±63.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de3?window=all) | 120 | 105.15% ±63.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 120 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $886 1,476,425 BUX | 6.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $527 878,265 BUX | 16.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $164 273,773 BUX | 32.1% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $39.22 65,340 BUX | 18.4% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× | | [XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $35.93 59,859 BUX | 16.8% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.25× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Off World (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-factory-new) | 13.0% | $3.57 5,947 BUX | 3.6% | 11 | 15.6 | 0.71× | | [G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-field-tested) | 15.5% | $2.61 4,348 BUX | 3.2% | 24 | 18.6 | 1.29× | | [Sticker \| Ancient Beast (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ancient-beast-foil) | 18.5% | $0.88 1,466 BUX | 1.3% | 20 | 22.2 | 0.90× | | [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-field-tested) | 19.0% | $0.46 766 BUX | 0.7% | 19 | 22.8 | 0.83× | | [Sticker \| Ancient Marauder sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ancient-marauder) | 19.0% | $0.45 749 BUX | 0.7% | 25 | 22.8 | 1.10× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Kukri Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $14.24 23,724 BUX $527 878,265 BUX 37.02x 2026-11-11 00:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de3) [Sticker | Ancient Marauder sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ancient-marauder) Hidden $14.24 23,724 BUX $0.45 749 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Sticker | Ancient Beast (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ancient-beast-foil) Hidden $14.24 23,724 BUX $0.88 1,466 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-field-tested) Hidden $14.24 23,724 BUX $2.61 4,348 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Sticker | Ancient Marauder sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ancient-marauder) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $14.24 23,724 BUX $0.45 749 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Sticker | Ancient Marauder sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ancient-marauder) Hidden $14.24 23,724 BUX $0.45 749 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-factory-new) Hidden $14.24 23,724 BUX $3.57 5,947 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC [Sticker | Ancient Marauder sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ancient-marauder) Hidden $14.24 23,724 BUX $0.45 749 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC [Sticker | Ancient Marauder sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ancient-marauder) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $14.24 23,724 BUX $0.45 749 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC [P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-field-tested) Hidden $14.24 23,724 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 00:38 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-factory-new) Hidden $14.24 23,724 BUX $3.57 5,947 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-11 00:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $14.24 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% Covert 0.4% Industrial Grade 2.5% Restricted 12.0% mil spec 13.0% blueLight 15.5% Exotic 18.5% gray 19.0% High Grade 19.0% best hit $527 (37.02x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt