--- title: "Lightfoot Lockup case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lightfoot Lockup ($15.08) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 97.06% over 80 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de5 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Lightfoot Lockup](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de5) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Lightfoot Lockup A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de5?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de5?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de5) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de5?window=all) Price · $15.08 · 25,117 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $13.57 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.06% · 80 openings, odds method Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2 openings · below min 7 days · 56 openings · below min 30 days · 80 openings · below min since tracking started · 80 openings · below min -0.5% 275.5% 551.5% **Small sample.** 80 openings and 4.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de5?window=24h) | 2 | 235.43% ±315.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de5?window=7d) | 56 | 115.05% ±59.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de5) | 80 | 97.06% ±49.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de5?window=all) | 80 | 97.06% ±49.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 80 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-factory-new) | 1 in 118 | $252 420,565 BUX | 15.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $116 194,022 BUX | 19.3% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $113 187,624 BUX | 18.7% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $68.45 114,037 BUX | 20.2% | 8 | 3.2 | 2.50× | | [Sticker \| Move It (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-move-it-foil) | 15.0% | $15.93 26,539 BUX | 17.6% | 12 | 12.0 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) | 25.7% | $2.54 4,231 BUX | 4.8% | 22 | 20.5 | 1.07× | | [Sticker \| Silent Ninja (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-silent-ninja-foil) | 50.0% | $0.98 1,632 BUX | 3.6% | 35 | 40.0 | 0.88× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de5) [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 25,117 BUX $2.54 4,231 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 25,117 BUX $68.45 114,037 BUX 4.54x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC [Sticker | Move It (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-move-it-foil) Hidden $15.08 25,117 BUX $15.93 26,539 BUX 1.06x 2026-11-11 01:43 UTC [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 25,117 BUX $2.54 4,231 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-11 01:43 UTC [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 25,117 BUX $2.54 4,231 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-11 01:43 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) [willeallden](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/willeallden) $15.08 25,117 BUX $68.45 114,037 BUX 4.54x 2026-11-11 01:43 UTC [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 25,117 BUX $2.54 4,231 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-10 21:42 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 25,117 BUX $68.45 114,037 BUX 4.54x 2026-11-10 21:42 UTC [Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) Hidden $15.08 25,117 BUX $113 187,624 BUX 7.47x 2026-11-10 21:42 UTC [Sticker | Move It (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-move-it-foil) [terney](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/terney) $15.08 25,117 BUX $15.93 26,539 BUX 1.06x 2026-11-10 21:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $15.08 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.9% classified 6.3% covert 2.3% Exotic 15.0% Restricted 25.7% Legendary 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt