--- title: "Electric Surge case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Electric Surge ($7.74) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 87.89% over 782 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de8 rendered: 2026-11-12T09:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Electric Surge](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de8) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Electric Surge A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de8?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de8?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de8) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de8?window=all) Price · $7.74 · 12,898 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $6.97 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.89% · 782 openings, odds method Variance · 7.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 86.16% ±20.45 726 openings 30 days · 87.89% ±19.71 782 openings since tracking started · 87.89% ±19.71 782 openings -0.5% 104.8% 210.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de8?window=24h) | 16 | 71.62% ±137.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de8?window=7d) | 726 | 86.16% ±20.5 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de8) | 782 | 87.89% ±19.7 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de8?window=all) | 782 | 87.89% ±19.7 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 782 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $523 871,401 BUX | 7.5% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [Sticker \| Zeus (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeus-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 40 | $51.92 86,498 BUX | 18.6% | 11 | 19.6 | 0.56× | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $50.54 84,199 BUX | 18.1% | 15 | 19.6 | 0.77× | | [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $39.11 65,157 BUX | 28.1% | 33 | 39.1 | 0.84× | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $28.54 47,547 BUX | 20.5% | 44 | 39.1 | 1.13× | | [Sticker \| Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) | 84.9% | $0.59 982 BUX | 7.2% | 677 | 663.9 | 1.02× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.74 12,898 BUX $523 871,401 BUX 67.56x 2026-11-11 03:01 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.74 12,898 BUX $523 871,401 BUX 67.56x 2026-11-09 22:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de8) [Sticker | Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) Hidden $7.74 12,898 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Sticker | Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) Hidden $7.74 12,898 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Sticker | Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) Hidden $7.74 12,898 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Sticker | Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $7.74 12,898 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Souvenir UMP-45 | Blaze (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.74 12,898 BUX $28.54 47,547 BUX 3.69x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [Sticker | Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) Hidden $7.74 12,898 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [Sticker | Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) Hidden $7.74 12,898 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [Sticker | Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $7.74 12,898 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [Sticker | Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) Hidden $7.74 12,898 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:08 UTC [Sticker | Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) Hidden $7.74 12,898 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $7.74 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% Exotic 2.5% classified 2.5% Classified 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% high 84.9% best hit $523 (67.56x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt