--- title: "Fuel Fusion case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Fuel Fusion ($6.78) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 9 items with odds, observed 65.67% over 90 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de9 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Fuel Fusion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de9) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Fuel Fusion A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de9?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de9?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de9) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de9?window=all) Price · $6.78 · 11,291 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $6.10 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 65.67% · 90 openings, odds method Variance · 26.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 50 openings · below min 30 days · 90 openings · below min since tracking started · 90 openings · below min -0.5% 192.8% 386.0% **Small sample.** 90 openings and 9.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de9?window=24h) | 8 | 28.73% ±356.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de9?window=7d) | 50 | 92.00% ±142.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de9) | 90 | 65.67% ±106.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de9?window=all) | 90 | 65.67% ±106.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 90 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Negev \| Mjölnir (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,033 1,720,678 BUX | 16.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $80.16 133,546 BUX | 32.9% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.89× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-zx-spectron-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $16.24 27,055 BUX | 20.0% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.74× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 10.4% | $5.49 9,146 BUX | 9.4% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× | | [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $4.18 6,963 BUX | 8.6% | 10 | 11.3 | 0.89× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) | 14.0% | $2.34 3,898 BUX | 5.4% | 13 | 12.6 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-fuel-rod-battle-scarred) | 17.0% | $1.12 1,865 BUX | 3.1% | 19 | 15.3 | 1.24× | | [M249 \| Magma (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-well-worn) | 18.0% | $0.88 1,466 BUX | 2.6% | 17 | 16.2 | 1.05× | | [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.42 699 BUX | 1.2% | 16 | 16.2 | 0.99× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9de9) [StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.78 11,291 BUX $5.49 9,146 BUX 0.81x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-field-tested) Hidden $6.78 11,291 BUX $0.42 699 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-fuel-rod-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.78 11,291 BUX $1.12 1,865 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-valence-minimal-wear) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $6.78 11,291 BUX $5.49 9,146 BUX 0.81x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [M249 | Magma (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-well-worn) Hidden $6.78 11,291 BUX $0.88 1,466 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [M249 | Magma (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-well-worn) Hidden $6.78 11,291 BUX $0.88 1,466 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-field-tested) Hidden $6.78 11,291 BUX $0.42 699 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [M249 | Magma (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-well-worn) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $6.78 11,291 BUX $0.88 1,466 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-fuel-rod-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.78 11,291 BUX $1.12 1,865 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-10 19:24 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-field-tested) Hidden $6.78 11,291 BUX $0.42 699 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-10 19:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $6.78 | 90.01% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 0.1% covert 2.5% Restricted 34.9% classified 12.5% #8847ff 14.0% Mil Spec Grade 18.0% mil spec 18.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt