--- title: "Fortune's Favor case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Fortune's Favor ($25.12) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 101.57% over 144 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dea rendered: 2026-11-12T07:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Fortune's Favor](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dea) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Fortune's Favor A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dea?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dea?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dea) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dea?window=all) Price · $25.12 · 41,857 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $22.61 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.57% · 144 openings, odds method Variance · 13.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 52 openings · below min 7 days · 85.00% ±66.60 113 openings 30 days · 101.57% ±59.00 144 openings since tracking started · 101.57% ±59.00 144 openings -0.5% 96.8% 194.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dea?window=24h) | 52 | 95.08% ±98.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dea?window=7d) | 113 | 85.00% ±66.6 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dea) | 144 | 101.57% ±59.0 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dea?window=all) | 144 | 101.57% ±59.0 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 144 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $3,604 6,003,847 BUX | 5.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,538 | $1,958 3,262,011 BUX | 5.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $212 353,691 BUX | 21.1% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.85× | | [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $73.94 123,184 BUX | 14.7% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.46× | | [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $62.99 104,941 BUX | 16.7% | 14 | 8.6 | 1.62× | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $50.00 83,300 BUX | 16.6% | 14 | 10.8 | 1.30× | | [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dezastre-minimal-wear) | 79.7% | $5.58 9,296 BUX | 19.7% | 107 | 114.7 | 0.93× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dea) [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dezastre-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.12 41,857 BUX $5.58 9,296 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dezastre-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.12 41,857 BUX $5.58 9,296 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) Hidden $25.12 41,857 BUX $50.00 83,300 BUX 1.99x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dezastre-minimal-wear) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $25.12 41,857 BUX $5.58 9,296 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dezastre-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.12 41,857 BUX $5.58 9,296 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dezastre-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.12 41,857 BUX $5.58 9,296 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dezastre-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.12 41,857 BUX $5.58 9,296 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dezastre-minimal-wear) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $25.12 41,857 BUX $5.58 9,296 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) Hidden $25.12 41,857 BUX $50.00 83,300 BUX 1.99x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) Hidden $25.12 41,857 BUX $50.00 83,300 BUX 1.99x 2026-11-12 00:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $25.12 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 2.3% Restricted 84.2% restricted 6.0% Classified 7.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt