--- title: "Lucky Likes case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lucky Likes ($9.68) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 4 items with odds, observed 79.42% over 110 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9deb rendered: 2026-11-12T07:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Lucky Likes](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9deb) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Lucky Likes A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9deb?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9deb?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9deb) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9deb?window=all) Price · $9.68 · 16,130 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $8.71 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.42% · 110 openings, odds method Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 26.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 63 openings · below min 30 days · 79.42% ±45.68 110 openings since tracking started · 79.42% ±45.68 110 openings 9.0% 70.0% 131.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9deb?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9deb?window=7d) | 63 | 69.93% ±60.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9deb) | 110 | 79.42% ±45.7 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9deb?window=all) | 110 | 79.42% ±45.7 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $715 1,190,723 BUX | 8.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) | 11.9% | $27.63 46,031 BUX | 37.7% | 14 | 13.1 | 1.07× | | [Glove Case Key other · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glove-case-key) | 14.0% | $12.72 21,191 BUX | 20.4% | 9 | 15.4 | 0.58× | | [Glove Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glove-case) | 74.0% | $3.96 6,597 BUX | 33.6% | 87 | 81.4 | 1.07× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9deb) [Glove Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glove-case) Hidden $9.68 16,130 BUX $3.96 6,597 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 01:38 UTC [Glove Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glove-case) Hidden $9.68 16,130 BUX $3.96 6,597 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 01:38 UTC [Glove Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glove-case) Hidden $9.68 16,130 BUX $3.96 6,597 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 01:38 UTC [Glove Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glove-case) [willeallden](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/willeallden) $9.68 16,130 BUX $3.96 6,597 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 01:38 UTC [Glove Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glove-case) Hidden $9.68 16,130 BUX $3.96 6,597 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 01:38 UTC [Glove Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glove-case) Hidden $9.68 16,130 BUX $3.96 6,597 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 01:38 UTC [Glove Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glove-case) Hidden $9.68 16,130 BUX $3.96 6,597 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 01:38 UTC [Glove Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glove-case) [willeallden](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/willeallden) $9.68 16,130 BUX $3.96 6,597 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 01:38 UTC [Glove Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glove-case) Hidden $9.68 16,130 BUX $3.96 6,597 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC [Glove Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glove-case) Hidden $9.68 16,130 BUX $3.96 6,597 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $9.68 | 90.00% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% Industrial Grade 11.9% Base Grade 88.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt