--- title: "Golden Fortune case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Golden Fortune ($5.16) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 96.20% over 1,067 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dee rendered: 2026-11-12T05:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Golden Fortune](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dee) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Golden Fortune A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dee?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dee?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dee) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dee?window=all) Price · $5.16 · 8,592 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $4.64 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.20% · 1,067 openings, odds method Variance · 10.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 100.37% ±24.20 683 openings 30 days · 96.20% ±19.36 1,067 openings since tracking started · 96.20% ±19.36 1,067 openings 75.5% 257.3% 439.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dee?window=24h) | 14 | 269.19% ±169.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dee?window=7d) | 683 | 100.37% ±24.2 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dee) | 1,067 | 96.20% ±19.4 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dee?window=all) | 1,067 | 96.20% ±19.4 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,067 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $205 340,813 BUX | 4.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| Golden (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-golden-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 250 | $173 288,501 BUX | 14.9% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.94× | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $74.49 124,100 BUX | 16.0% | 12 | 10.7 | 1.12× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $71.60 119,285 BUX | 15.4% | 16 | 10.7 | 1.50× | | [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $32.88 54,778 BUX | 17.7% | 32 | 26.7 | 1.20× | | [Sticker \| Luck Skill (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luck-skill-foil) | 1 in 20 | $5.11 8,513 BUX | 5.5% | 44 | 53.4 | 0.82× | | [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 45.0% | $1.36 2,265 BUX | 13.2% | 474 | 480.2 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Good Luck sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-good-luck) | 45.0% | $1.32 2,199 BUX | 12.8% | 485 | 480.2 | 1.01× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dee) [Sticker | Good Luck sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-good-luck) Hidden $5.16 8,592 BUX $1.32 2,199 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) Hidden $5.16 8,592 BUX $1.36 2,265 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) Hidden $5.16 8,592 BUX $1.36 2,265 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $5.16 8,592 BUX $1.36 2,265 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [Sticker | Good Luck sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-good-luck) Hidden $5.16 8,592 BUX $1.32 2,199 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [Sticker | Luck Skill (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-luck-skill-foil) Hidden $5.16 8,592 BUX $5.11 8,513 BUX 0.99x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) Hidden $5.16 8,592 BUX $1.36 2,265 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [Sticker | Good Luck sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-good-luck) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $5.16 8,592 BUX $1.32 2,199 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [Sticker | Good Luck sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-good-luck) Hidden $5.16 8,592 BUX $1.32 2,199 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) [Štozaxuinia](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/%C5%A0tozaxuinia) $5.16 8,592 BUX $1.36 2,265 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $5.16 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.1% Extraordinary 0.4% covert 2.0% Mythical 2.5% Exotic 5.0% classified 45.0% High Grade 45.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt