--- title: "Moonlight Mysteries case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Moonlight Mysteries ($7.85) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 85.60% over 560 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9def rendered: 2026-11-12T07:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Moonlight Mysteries](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9def) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Moonlight Mysteries A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9def?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9def?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9def) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9def?window=all) Price · $7.85 · 13,079 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $7.07 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.60% · 560 openings, odds method Variance · 13.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 20 openings · below min 7 days · 88.78% ±32.52 504 openings 30 days · 85.60% ±30.85 560 openings since tracking started · 85.60% ±30.85 560 openings -0.5% 87.3% 175.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9def?window=24h) | 20 | 11.07% ±163.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9def?window=7d) | 504 | 88.78% ±32.5 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9def) | 560 | 85.60% ±30.9 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9def?window=all) | 560 | 85.60% ±30.9 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 560 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $309 514,327 BUX | 4.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $241 401,056 BUX | 6.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $200 333,200 BUX | 8.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $135 225,693 BUX | 7.7% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.34× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $112 186,025 BUX | 63.2% | 20 | 22.4 | 0.89× | | [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.04 6,730 BUX | 5.7% | 56 | 56.0 | 1.00× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-battle-scarred) | 85.0% | $0.31 516 BUX | 3.7% | 478 | 476.0 | 1.00× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9def) [Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.85 13,079 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 23:56 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.85 13,079 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 23:56 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.85 13,079 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 23:56 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $7.85 13,079 BUX $4.04 6,730 BUX 0.51x 2026-11-11 23:56 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.85 13,079 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.85 13,079 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.85 13,079 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-battle-scarred) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $7.85 13,079 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $7.85 13,079 BUX $4.04 6,730 BUX 0.51x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.85 13,079 BUX $0.31 516 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $7.85 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% covert 0.2% Covert 0.7% rare 4.0% consumer 10.0% Industrial Grade 85.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt