--- title: "Different types of Marble on 500 Casino: odds & RTP" description: "Different types of Marble ($262.49) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 92.93% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df1 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Different types of Marble](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df1) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Different types of Marble A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df1?window=all) Price · $262.49 · 437,311 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $236.24 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.93% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 50.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min 52.0% 92.8% 133.5% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df1?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df1?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df1) | 8 | 92.93% ±40.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df1?window=all) | 8 | 92.93% ±40.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,903 3,170,931 BUX | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $1,210 2,016,276 BUX | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $752 1,253,381 BUX | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $575 958,483 BUX | 4.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $467 778,571 BUX | 5.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $457 760,578 BUX | 7.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $321 534,502 BUX | 6.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $314 522,340 BUX | 8.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $265 441,923 BUX | 7.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 21.0% | $186 310,642 BUX | 16.6% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 24.0% | $170 283,236 BUX | 17.3% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 26.0% | $153 255,631 BUX | 16.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df1) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $262 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 91.6% Covert 1.4% extraordinary 7.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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