--- title: "Bloody Phantom case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Bloody Phantom ($40.74) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 104.85% over 103 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df2 rendered: 2026-11-12T05:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Bloody Phantom](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df2) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Bloody Phantom A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df2?window=all) Price · $40.74 · 67,870 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $36.66 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.85% · 103 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 64 openings · below min 7 days · 91 openings · below min 30 days · 104.85% ±33.05 103 openings since tracking started · 104.85% ±33.05 103 openings 41.5% 90.0% 138.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df2?window=24h) | 64 | 84.01% ±41.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df2?window=7d) | 91 | 97.87% ±35.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df2) | 103 | 104.85% ±33.1 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df2?window=all) | 103 | 104.85% ±33.1 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 103 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $544 905,704 BUX | 14.8% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.94× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Minimal Wear) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $319 531,753 BUX | 17.4% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.46× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $112 187,075 BUX | 15.3% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.78× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $52.60 87,631 BUX | 11.5% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.97× | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $49.46 82,400 BUX | 10.8% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) | 38.0% | $16.89 28,138 BUX | 17.5% | 37 | 39.1 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 38.0% | $12.23 20,375 BUX | 12.7% | 42 | 39.1 | 1.07× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $40.74 67,870 BUX $544 905,704 BUX 13.34x 2026-11-10 00:16 UTC [★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) [♛Orsha♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/%E2%99%9BOrsha%E2%99%9B) $40.74 67,870 BUX $544 905,704 BUX 13.34x 2026-11-03 23:11 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df2) [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) Hidden $40.74 67,870 BUX $52.60 87,631 BUX 1.29x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $40.74 67,870 BUX $16.89 28,138 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $40.74 67,870 BUX $12.23 20,375 BUX 0.30x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $40.74 67,870 BUX $49.46 82,400 BUX 1.21x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $40.74 67,870 BUX $12.23 20,375 BUX 0.30x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $40.74 67,870 BUX $16.89 28,138 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $40.74 67,870 BUX $16.89 28,138 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $40.74 67,870 BUX $16.89 28,138 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $40.74 67,870 BUX $16.89 28,138 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:49 UTC [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) Hidden $40.74 67,870 BUX $52.60 87,631 BUX 1.29x 2026-11-11 14:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $40.74 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 14.0% Extraordinary 2.0% classified 8.0% Classified 38.0% Mil Spec Grade 38.0% best hit $544 (13.34x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt