--- title: "Frontline Forces case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Frontline Forces ($109.18) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 88.88% over 102 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df3 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Frontline Forces](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df3) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Frontline Forces A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df3?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df3?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df3) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df3?window=all) Price · $109.18 · 181,901 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $98.27 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.88% · 102 openings, odds method Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 60.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 98 openings · below min 30 days · 88.88% ±12.70 102 openings since tracking started · 88.88% ±12.70 102 openings 58.5% 85.5% 112.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df3?window=24h) | 24 | 85.42% ±26.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df3?window=7d) | 98 | 88.64% ±13.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df3) | 102 | 88.88% ±12.7 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df3?window=all) | 102 | 88.88% ±12.7 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 102 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $376 626,266 BUX | 9.6% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.18× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $356 592,446 BUX | 9.0% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $202 336,848 BUX | 10.3% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.98× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 10.0% | $150 250,583 BUX | 15.3% | 9 | 10.2 | 0.88× | | [P90 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 40.0% | $70.80 117,952 BUX | 28.8% | 43 | 40.8 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 40.0% | $66.27 110,405 BUX | 27.0% | 40 | 40.8 | 0.98× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df3) [StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $109 181,901 BUX $66.27 110,405 BUX 0.61x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $109 181,901 BUX $66.27 110,405 BUX 0.61x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) Hidden $109 181,901 BUX $70.80 117,952 BUX 0.65x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $109 181,901 BUX $70.80 117,952 BUX 0.65x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $109 181,901 BUX $66.27 110,405 BUX 0.61x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) Hidden $109 181,901 BUX $70.80 117,952 BUX 0.65x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $109 181,901 BUX $66.27 110,405 BUX 0.61x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $109 181,901 BUX $70.80 117,952 BUX 0.65x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) Hidden $109 181,901 BUX $70.80 117,952 BUX 0.65x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) Hidden $109 181,901 BUX $70.80 117,952 BUX 0.65x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $109 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Restricted 2.5% Covert 2.5% restricted 5.0% Industrial Grade 10.0% industrial 40.0% covert 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt