--- title: "Crystal Cascade case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Crystal Cascade ($204.59) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 49.28% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df4 rendered: 2026-11-12T06:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Crystal Cascade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df4) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Crystal Cascade A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df4?window=all) Price · $204.59 · 340,846 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $184.13 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 49.28% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 77.0% 154.5% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df4?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df4?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df4) | 4 | 49.28% ±104.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df4?window=all) | 4 | 49.28% ±104.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $1,712 2,852,458 BUX | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $1,460 2,431,593 BUX | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $799 1,331,183 BUX | 6.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $752 1,253,381 BUX | 8.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $431 717,396 BUX | 12.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $381 635,379 BUX | 14.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $348 579,884 BUX | 15.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 10.0% | $205 340,813 BUX | 11.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-minimal-wear) | 65.0% | $66.25 110,372 BUX | 23.4% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df4) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $205 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 21.5% sunny 5.5% #ffd700 8.0% classified 65.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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