--- title: "Bet & Win case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Bet & Win ($22.26) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 71.48% over 35 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df5 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Bet & Win](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df5) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Bet & Win A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df5?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df5?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df5) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df5?window=all) Price · $22.26 · 37,091 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $20.04 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.48% · 35 openings, odds method Variance · 6.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 23 openings · below min 30 days · 35 openings · below min since tracking started · 35 openings · below min -0.5% 89.5% 179.5% **Small sample.** 35 openings and 6.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df5?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df5?window=7d) | 23 | 76.34% ±102.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df5) | 35 | 71.48% ±83.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df5?window=all) | 35 | 71.48% ±83.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $553 922,097 BUX | 27.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $82.01 136,628 BUX | 8.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $72.07 120,068 BUX | 10.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.95× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $29.98 49,946 BUX | 18.0% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.43× | | [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 22.0% | $12.54 20,891 BUX | 13.8% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× | | [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-factory-new) | 30.0% | $8.66 14,427 BUX | 13.0% | 9 | 10.5 | 0.86× | | [Aces High Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/aces-high-pin) | 30.0% | $5.82 9,696 BUX | 8.7% | 12 | 10.5 | 1.14× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df5) [Aces High Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/aces-high-pin) Hidden $22.26 37,091 BUX $5.82 9,696 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Aces High Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/aces-high-pin) Hidden $22.26 37,091 BUX $5.82 9,696 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) Hidden $22.26 37,091 BUX $29.98 49,946 BUX 1.35x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Aces High Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/aces-high-pin) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $22.26 37,091 BUX $5.82 9,696 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Aces High Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/aces-high-pin) Hidden $22.26 37,091 BUX $5.82 9,696 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.26 37,091 BUX $72.07 120,068 BUX 3.24x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) Hidden $22.26 37,091 BUX $29.98 49,946 BUX 1.35x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [PP-Bizon | High Roller (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $22.26 37,091 BUX $8.66 14,427 BUX 0.39x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [Aces High Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/aces-high-pin) Hidden $22.26 37,091 BUX $5.82 9,696 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-08 19:28 UTC [Aces High Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/aces-high-pin) [キKing キ](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/%E3%82%ADKing%20%E3%82%AD) $22.26 37,091 BUX $5.82 9,696 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-08 19:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $22.26 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 1.0% covert 14.0% classified 33.0% industrial 22.0% exotic 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt