---
title: "Indigo Infiltration case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Indigo Infiltration ($37.25) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 93.97% over 400 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df7
rendered: 2026-11-12T06:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Indigo Infiltration](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df7)

# [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Indigo Infiltration

A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df7?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df7?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df7) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df7?window=all)

Price · $37.25 · 62,051 BUX

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $33.52 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.97% · 400 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 95.93% ±17.84 380 openings

30 days · 93.97% ±17.39 400 openings

since tracking started · 93.97% ±17.39 400 openings

76.0% 95.3% 114.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df7?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df7?window=7d) | 380 | 95.93% ±17.8 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df7) | 400 | 93.97% ±17.4 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df7?window=all) | 400 | 93.97% ±17.4 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 400 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $671 1,118,452 BUX | 2.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $564 939,890 BUX | 6.7% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $263 437,874 BUX | 7.8% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $261 434,142 BUX | 15.5% | 6 | 8.0 | 0.75× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $188 312,524 BUX | 16.8% | 16 | 12.0 | 1.33× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $84.93 141,493 BUX | 12.7% | 16 | 20.0 | 0.80× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-blue-steel-well-worn) | 15.0% | $39.41 65,657 BUX | 17.6% | 61 | 60.0 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $12.00 19,992 BUX | 8.9% | 109 | 100.0 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 48.5% | $8.18 13,627 BUX | 11.8% | 185 | 194.0 | 0.95× |

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-battle-scarred) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $37.25 62,051 BUX $671 1,118,452 BUX 18.02x 2026-11-11 01:43 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $37.25 62,051 BUX $564 939,890 BUX 15.15x 2026-11-11 02:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $37.25 62,051 BUX $564 939,890 BUX 15.15x 2026-11-11 02:41 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df7)

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.25 62,051 BUX $12.00 19,992 BUX 0.32x 2026-11-11 03:53 UTC

[AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $37.25 62,051 BUX $8.18 13,627 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-11 03:53 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.25 62,051 BUX $12.00 19,992 BUX 0.32x 2026-11-11 03:53 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-blue-steel-well-worn) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $37.25 62,051 BUX $39.41 65,657 BUX 1.06x 2026-11-11 03:53 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.25 62,051 BUX $12.00 19,992 BUX 0.32x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.25 62,051 BUX $12.00 19,992 BUX 0.32x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $37.25 62,051 BUX $39.41 65,657 BUX 1.06x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-blue-steel-well-worn) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $37.25 62,051 BUX $39.41 65,657 BUX 1.06x 2026-11-11 03:51 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $37.25 62,051 BUX $39.41 65,657 BUX 1.06x 2026-11-11 03:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $37.25 62,051 BUX $8.18 13,627 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-11 03:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $37.25 | 90.00% | 9 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 8.1% classified 0.4% Covert 3.0% Industrial Grade 40.0% restricted 48.5% best hit $671 (18.02x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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