--- title: "Midas Touch case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Midas Touch ($102.88) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 89.71% over 112 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df9 rendered: 2026-11-12T09:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Midas Touch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df9) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Midas Touch A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df9?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df9?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df9) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df9?window=all) Price · $102.88 · 171,400 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $92.59 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.71% · 112 openings, odds method Variance · 19.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 47 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 104 openings · below min 7 days · 112 openings · below min 30 days · 112 openings · below min since tracking started · 112 openings · below min 8.0% 93.0% 178.0% **Small sample.** 112 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df9?window=24h) | 104 | 93.55% ±83.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df9?window=7d) | 112 | 89.71% ±80.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df9) | 112 | 89.71% ±80.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df9?window=all) | 112 | 89.71% ±80.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 112 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| s1mple (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 333 | $6,989 11,643,307 BUX | 22.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| kennyS (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kennys-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 118 | $2,037 3,393,608 BUX | 18.7% | 3 | 1.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $1,543 2,570,921 BUX | 16.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $197 327,885 BUX | 12.8% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.89× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $165 275,373 BUX | 13.3% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.08× | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 13.4% | $55.19 91,946 BUX | 8.0% | 13 | 15.0 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) | 71.0% | $10.37 17,276 BUX | 8.0% | 81 | 79.5 | 1.02× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kennys-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $103 171,400 BUX $2,037 3,393,608 BUX 19.80x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC [Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kennys-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $103 171,400 BUX $2,037 3,393,608 BUX 19.80x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kennys-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $103 171,400 BUX $2,037 3,393,608 BUX 19.80x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9df9) [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) Hidden $103 171,400 BUX $10.37 17,276 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) Hidden $103 171,400 BUX $10.37 17,276 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) Hidden $103 171,400 BUX $165 275,373 BUX 1.61x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $103 171,400 BUX $55.19 91,946 BUX 0.54x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kennys-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $103 171,400 BUX $2,037 3,393,608 BUX 19.80x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) Hidden $103 171,400 BUX $10.37 17,276 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) Hidden $103 171,400 BUX $10.37 17,276 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $103 171,400 BUX $197 327,885 BUX 1.91x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) Hidden $103 171,400 BUX $10.37 17,276 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) Hidden $103 171,400 BUX $10.37 17,276 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $103 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Extraordinary 0.3% extraordinary 0.9% covert 14.4% restricted 84.4% best hit $2,037 (19.80x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt