--- title: "Spooky Specters case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Spooky Specters ($248.88) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 26.66% over 28 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfa rendered: 2026-11-12T06:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Spooky Specters](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfa) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Spooky Specters A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfa?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfa?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfa) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfa?window=all) Price · $248.88 · 414,628 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $223.99 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 26.66% · 28 openings, odds method Variance · 16.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 44 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 28 openings · below min since tracking started · 28 openings · below min -0.5% 236.3% 473.0% **Small sample.** 28 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfa?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfa?window=7d) | 4 | 73.02% ±399.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfa) | 28 | 26.66% ±151.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfa?window=all) | 28 | 26.66% ±151.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $9,468 15,774,487 BUX | 31.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $4,962 8,267,491 BUX | 33.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Night Ops (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-night-ops-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $723 1,204,518 BUX | 21.0% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.10× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 10.0% | $147 244,385 BUX | 6.5% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× | | [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-factory-new) | 11.5% | $96.56 160,868 BUX | 5.0% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× | | [MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-field-tested) | 15.0% | $19.38 32,287 BUX | 1.3% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Curse (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-curse-factory-new) | 15.5% | $15.20 25,323 BUX | 1.1% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.61× | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 39.3% | $1.29 2,149 BUX | 0.2% | 12 | 11.0 | 1.09× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-night-ops-factory-new) Hidden $249 414,628 BUX $723 1,204,518 BUX 2.91x 2026-11-07 07:41 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-night-ops-factory-new) [Brad Pitt](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Brad%20Pitt) $249 414,628 BUX $723 1,204,518 BUX 2.91x 2026-11-03 17:18 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfa) [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) Hidden $249 414,628 BUX $1.29 2,149 BUX 0.01x 2026-11-07 07:41 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-night-ops-factory-new) Hidden $249 414,628 BUX $723 1,204,518 BUX 2.91x 2026-11-07 07:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) Hidden $249 414,628 BUX $1.29 2,149 BUX 0.01x 2026-11-07 07:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) [fazzxn](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/fazzxn) $249 414,628 BUX $1.29 2,149 BUX 0.01x 2026-11-07 07:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $249 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 10.8% contraband 1.5% mil spec 21.5% Classified 11.5% restricted 15.5% #8847ff 39.3% best hit $723 (2.91x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt