--- title: "Holographic Havoc case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Holographic Havoc ($12.95) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 92.00% over 80 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfb rendered: 2026-11-12T06:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Holographic Havoc](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfb) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Holographic Havoc A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfb?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfb?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfb) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfb?window=all) Price · $12.95 · 21,570 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $11.65 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.00% · 80 openings, odds method Variance · 7.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 52 openings · below min 30 days · 80 openings · below min since tracking started · 80 openings · below min -0.5% 76.3% 153.0% **Small sample.** 80 openings and 5.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfb?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfb?window=7d) | 52 | 69.80% ±74.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfb) | 80 | 92.00% ±60.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfb?window=all) | 80 | 92.00% ±60.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 80 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Cologne 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-cologne-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $793 1,321,271 BUX | 6.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $233 388,827 BUX | 10.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $165 274,756 BUX | 12.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $62.52 104,158 BUX | 12.9% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.56× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $50.19 83,616 BUX | 12.9% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | | [MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-prism-terrace-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $35.79 59,626 BUX | 13.8% | 10 | 3.6 | 2.78× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $14.01 23,340 BUX | 9.0% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.33× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $7.99 13,311 BUX | 6.9% | 10 | 8.0 | 1.25× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| X-Ray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-x-ray-factory-new) | 71.1% | $2.45 4,081 BUX | 14.9% | 47 | 56.9 | 0.83× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfb) [StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $12.95 21,570 BUX $2.45 4,081 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-10 19:22 UTC [MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-prism-terrace-field-tested) Hidden $12.95 21,570 BUX $35.79 59,626 BUX 2.76x 2026-11-10 19:22 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $12.95 21,570 BUX $2.45 4,081 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-10 19:22 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-x-ray-factory-new) [makarass](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/makarass) $12.95 21,570 BUX $2.45 4,081 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-10 19:22 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.95 21,570 BUX $7.99 13,311 BUX 0.62x 2026-11-10 14:24 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $12.95 21,570 BUX $2.45 4,081 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-10 14:24 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.95 21,570 BUX $7.99 13,311 BUX 0.62x 2026-11-10 14:24 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-x-ray-factory-new) [KatteManden](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/KatteManden) $12.95 21,570 BUX $2.45 4,081 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-10 14:24 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $12.95 21,570 BUX $2.45 4,081 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-10 01:06 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $12.95 21,570 BUX $2.45 4,081 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-10 01:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $12.95 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.1% covert 11.0% restricted 10.9% Covert 2.4% Restricted 75.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt