--- title: "Outdoor Feast case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Outdoor Feast ($7.40) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 67.76% over 134 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfc rendered: 2026-11-12T06:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Outdoor Feast](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfc) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Outdoor Feast A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfc?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfc?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfc) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfc?window=all) Price · $7.40 · 12,333 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $6.66 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 67.76% · 134 openings, odds method Variance · 13.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 95 openings · below min 30 days · 134 openings · below min since tracking started · 134 openings · below min -0.5% 138.3% 277.0% **Small sample.** 134 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfc?window=24h) | 10 | 52.75% ±223.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfc?window=7d) | 95 | 79.07% ±72.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfc) | 134 | 67.76% ±61.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfc?window=all) | 134 | 67.76% ±61.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 134 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $447 744,985 BUX | 13.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $153 255,031 BUX | 18.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× | | [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $99.89 166,416 BUX | 22.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [P2000 \| Grassland (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $11.66 19,425 BUX | 13.1% | 11 | 10.0 | 1.09× | | [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $6.92 11,528 BUX | 10.4% | 11 | 13.4 | 0.82× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Recoil AUG (Jungle Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-aug-jungle-green) | 11.5% | $5.77 9,612 BUX | 10.0% | 17 | 15.4 | 1.10× | | [Nova \| Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-forest-leaves-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $2.61 4,348 BUX | 5.5% | 25 | 18.8 | 1.33× | | [MP9 \| Green Plaid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-green-plaid-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $2.08 3,465 BUX | 4.7% | 16 | 20.1 | 0.80× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Noodles graffiti · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-noodles) | 39.5% | $0.35 583 BUX | 2.1% | 52 | 52.9 | 0.98× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfc) [MP9 | Green Plaid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-green-plaid-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.40 12,333 BUX $2.08 3,465 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AUG (Jungle Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-aug-jungle-green) Hidden $7.40 12,333 BUX $5.77 9,612 BUX 0.78x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [P2000 | Grassland (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-factory-new) Hidden $7.40 12,333 BUX $11.66 19,425 BUX 1.58x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [Nova | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-forest-leaves-minimal-wear) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $7.40 12,333 BUX $2.61 4,348 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Noodles graffiti · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-noodles) Hidden $7.40 12,333 BUX $0.35 583 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [Nova | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-forest-leaves-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.40 12,333 BUX $2.61 4,348 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AUG (Jungle Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-aug-jungle-green) Hidden $7.40 12,333 BUX $5.77 9,612 BUX 0.78x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Noodles graffiti · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-noodles) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $7.40 12,333 BUX $0.35 583 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:15 UTC [MP9 | Green Plaid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-green-plaid-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.40 12,333 BUX $2.08 3,465 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-11 07:02 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Recoil AUG (Jungle Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-aug-jungle-green) [Drakun](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Drakun) $7.40 12,333 BUX $5.77 9,612 BUX 0.78x 2026-11-11 07:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $7.40 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.2% covert 0.8% industrial 19.0% Base Grade 11.5% consumer 14.0% Consumer Grade 15.0% High Grade 39.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt