--- title: "Digital Domination case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Digital Domination ($14.12) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 47.44% over 127 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfd rendered: 2026-11-11T23:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Digital Domination](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfd) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Digital Domination A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfd?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfd?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfd) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfd?window=all) Price · $14.12 · 23,520 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $12.71 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 47.44% · 127 openings, odds method Variance · 5.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 36 openings · below min 7 days · 82 openings · below min 30 days · 47.44% ±40.52 127 openings since tracking started · 47.44% ±40.52 127 openings -0.5% 68.0% 136.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (6.91% – 87.96%, 127 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfd?window=24h) | 36 | 59.52% ±76.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfd?window=7d) | 82 | 51.89% ±50.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfd) | 127 | 47.44% ±40.5 | −2.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfd?window=all) | 127 | 47.44% ±40.5 | −2.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 127 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $202 336,848 BUX | 19.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $128 212,931 BUX | 25.1% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $86.81 144,625 BUX | 27.3% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 15.0% | $10.19 16,976 BUX | 12.0% | 20 | 19.1 | 1.05× | | [Sticker \| electronic (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-electronic-gold-antwerp-2022) | 20.0% | $5.12 8,529 BUX | 8.1% | 25 | 25.4 | 0.98× | | [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-factory-new) | 25.0% | $2.44 4,065 BUX | 4.8% | 34 | 31.8 | 1.07× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cyber-shell-minimal-wear) | 32.3% | $1.08 1,799 BUX | 2.7% | 44 | 41.0 | 1.07× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfd) [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) Hidden $14.12 23,520 BUX $10.19 16,976 BUX 0.72x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-factory-new) Hidden $14.12 23,520 BUX $2.44 4,065 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-factory-new) Hidden $14.12 23,520 BUX $2.44 4,065 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cyber-shell-minimal-wear) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $14.12 23,520 BUX $1.08 1,799 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cyber-shell-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.12 23,520 BUX $1.08 1,799 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Sticker | electronic (Gold) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-electronic-gold-antwerp-2022) Hidden $14.12 23,520 BUX $5.12 8,529 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) Hidden $14.12 23,520 BUX $10.19 16,976 BUX 0.72x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $14.12 23,520 BUX $2.44 4,065 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cyber-shell-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.12 23,520 BUX $1.08 1,799 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cyber-shell-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.12 23,520 BUX $1.08 1,799 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $14.12 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 26.3% covert 2.5% Classified 4.0% classified 15.0% Extraordinary 20.0% Restricted 32.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt