--- title: "Abstract Visions case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Abstract Visions ($15.89) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 105.65% over 150 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfe rendered: 2026-11-12T05:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Abstract Visions](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfe) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Abstract Visions A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfe?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfe?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfe) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfe?window=all) Price · $15.89 · 26,470 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $14.30 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 105.65% · 150 openings, odds method Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 96.60% ±37.90 116 openings 30 days · 105.65% ±33.33 150 openings since tracking started · 105.65% ±33.33 150 openings 43.0% 247.8% 452.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfe?window=24h) | 4 | 247.98% ±204.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfe?window=7d) | 116 | 96.60% ±37.9 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfe) | 150 | 105.65% ±33.3 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfe?window=all) | 150 | 105.65% ±33.3 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 150 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $144 239,204 BUX | 20.1% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $123 204,951 BUX | 25.8% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.33× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $101 168,615 BUX | 28.3% | 10 | 6.0 | 1.67× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $10.94 18,226 BUX | 6.9% | 9 | 13.5 | 0.67× | | [Sticker \| Neon Opal Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neon-opal-strafe-holo) | 10.5% | $8.67 14,444 BUX | 6.4% | 11 | 15.8 | 0.70× | | [Sticker \| Hypnotic Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k-foil) | 15.5% | $3.50 5,831 BUX | 3.8% | 28 | 23.3 | 1.20× | | [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) | 18.0% | $2.71 4,514 BUX | 3.4% | 31 | 27.0 | 1.15× | | [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-minimal-wear) | 18.5% | $2.18 3,631 BUX | 2.8% | 20 | 27.8 | 0.72× | | [Sticker \| Ethereal Gaze (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ethereal-gaze-foil) | 19.5% | $1.85 3,082 BUX | 2.5% | 33 | 29.3 | 1.13× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9dfe) [Sticker | Hypnotic Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k-foil) Hidden $15.89 26,470 BUX $3.50 5,831 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Sticker | Neon Opal Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neon-opal-strafe-holo) Hidden $15.89 26,470 BUX $8.67 14,444 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) Hidden $15.89 26,470 BUX $144 239,204 BUX 9.04x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Sticker | Ethereal Gaze (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ethereal-gaze-foil) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $15.89 26,470 BUX $1.85 3,082 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) Hidden $15.89 26,470 BUX $2.71 4,514 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) Hidden $15.89 26,470 BUX $2.71 4,514 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) Hidden $15.89 26,470 BUX $2.71 4,514 BUX 0.17x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $15.89 26,470 BUX $10.94 18,226 BUX 0.69x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [Sticker | Neon Opal Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neon-opal-strafe-holo) Hidden $15.89 26,470 BUX $8.67 14,444 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [Sticker | Ethereal Gaze (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ethereal-gaze-foil) Hidden $15.89 26,470 BUX $1.85 3,082 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $15.89 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.0% classified 13.0% remarkable 10.5% exotic 15.5% Restricted 18.0% restricted 18.5% Legendary 19.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt