--- title: "Crimson Gambit case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Crimson Gambit ($44.11) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 94.81% over 553 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e01 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Crimson Gambit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e01) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Crimson Gambit A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e01?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e01?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e01) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e01?window=all) Price · $44.11 · 73,480 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $39.70 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.81% · 553 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 98.17% ±14.53 384 openings 7 days · 94.90% ±12.34 533 openings 30 days · 94.81% ±12.11 553 openings since tracking started · 94.81% ±12.11 553 openings 82.0% 97.8% 113.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e01?window=24h) | 384 | 98.17% ±14.5 | +1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e01?window=7d) | 533 | 94.90% ±12.3 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e01) | 553 | 94.81% ±12.1 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e01?window=all) | 553 | 94.81% ±12.1 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 553 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $646 1,076,219 BUX | 16.3% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.27× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $101 167,782 BUX | 5.1% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× | | [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $81.14 135,179 BUX | 6.1% | 14 | 16.6 | 0.84× | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $73.96 123,217 BUX | 7.5% | 27 | 22.1 | 1.22× | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $70.57 117,569 BUX | 7.1% | 28 | 22.1 | 1.27× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 10.0% | $52.60 87,631 BUX | 13.3% | 54 | 55.3 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| DEVIL (Foil) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-devil-foil-cologne-2016) | 38.0% | $24.22 40,350 BUX | 23.2% | 208 | 210.1 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-battle-scarred) | 38.0% | $22.48 37,451 BUX | 21.5% | 205 | 210.1 | 0.98× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $44.11 73,480 BUX $646 1,076,219 BUX 14.65x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $44.11 73,480 BUX $646 1,076,219 BUX 14.65x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $44.11 73,480 BUX $646 1,076,219 BUX 14.65x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $44.11 73,480 BUX $646 1,076,219 BUX 14.65x 2026-11-11 09:18 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $44.11 73,480 BUX $646 1,076,219 BUX 14.65x 2026-11-11 09:14 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $44.11 73,480 BUX $646 1,076,219 BUX 14.65x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) [fazzxn](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/fazzxn) $44.11 73,480 BUX $646 1,076,219 BUX 14.65x 2026-11-07 07:39 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e01) [Sticker | DEVIL (Foil) | Cologne 2016 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-devil-foil-cologne-2016) Hidden $44.11 73,480 BUX $24.22 40,350 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-battle-scarred) Hidden $44.11 73,480 BUX $22.48 37,451 BUX 0.51x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [Five-SeveN | Crimson Blossom (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-factory-new) Hidden $44.11 73,480 BUX $81.14 135,179 BUX 1.84x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-battle-scarred) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $44.11 73,480 BUX $22.48 37,451 BUX 0.51x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) Hidden $44.11 73,480 BUX $52.60 87,631 BUX 1.19x 2026-11-11 14:49 UTC [M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-battle-scarred) Hidden $44.11 73,480 BUX $22.48 37,451 BUX 0.51x 2026-11-11 14:49 UTC [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) Hidden $44.11 73,480 BUX $52.60 87,631 BUX 1.19x 2026-11-11 14:49 UTC [M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-battle-scarred) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $44.11 73,480 BUX $22.48 37,451 BUX 0.51x 2026-11-11 14:49 UTC [Sticker | DEVIL (Foil) | Cologne 2016 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-devil-foil-cologne-2016) Hidden $44.11 73,480 BUX $24.22 40,350 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-11 14:48 UTC [Sticker | DEVIL (Foil) | Cologne 2016 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-devil-foil-cologne-2016) Hidden $44.11 73,480 BUX $24.22 40,350 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-11 14:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $44.11 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 1.0% covert 12.0% mil spec 3.0% classified 4.0% restricted 4.0% Exotic 38.0% Industrial Grade 38.0% best hit $646 (14.65x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt