--- title: "Stratospheric Strike case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Stratospheric Strike ($4.57) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 83.09% over 1,330 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e02 rendered: 2026-11-12T06:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Stratospheric Strike](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e02) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Stratospheric Strike A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e02?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e02?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e02) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e02?window=all) Price · $4.57 · 7,606 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $4.11 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.09% · 1,330 openings, odds method Variance · 19.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 11 openings · below min 7 days · 89.93% ±28.71 916 openings 30 days · 83.09% ±23.82 1,330 openings since tracking started · 83.09% ±23.82 1,330 openings -0.5% 135.8% 272.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e02?window=24h) | 11 | 9.64% ±262.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e02?window=7d) | 916 | 89.93% ±28.7 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e02) | 1,330 | 83.09% ±23.8 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e02?window=all) | 1,330 | 83.09% ±23.8 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,330 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Cloud9 (Holo) \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-holo-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $381 635,362 BUX | 9.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| Cloud9 G2A (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-g2a-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 500 | $264 440,557 BUX | 12.9% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.38× | | [Sticker \| Cloud9 (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-foil-boston-2018) | 1 in 143 | $106 175,896 BUX | 18.0% | 16 | 9.3 | 1.72× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $73.92 123,150 BUX | 18.0% | 11 | 13.3 | 0.83× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $7.16 11,928 BUX | 7.0% | 62 | 53.2 | 1.17× | | [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $6.79 11,312 BUX | 6.6% | 58 | 53.2 | 1.09× | | [XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.83 9,712 BUX | 7.1% | 51 | 66.5 | 0.77× | | [P2000 \| Space Race (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.52 9,196 BUX | 6.7% | 61 | 66.5 | 0.92× | | [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $4.49 7,480 BUX | 6.6% | 83 | 79.8 | 1.04× | | [MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) | 74.0% | $0.44 733 BUX | 7.9% | 987 | 984.2 | 1.00× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Cloud9 G2A (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-g2a-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $4.57 7,606 BUX $264 440,557 BUX 57.92x 2026-11-09 09:44 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e02) [MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) Hidden $4.57 7,606 BUX $0.44 733 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:52 UTC [MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) Hidden $4.57 7,606 BUX $0.44 733 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:52 UTC [MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) Hidden $4.57 7,606 BUX $0.44 733 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:52 UTC [MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) [user-81c4ab](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-81c4ab) $4.57 7,606 BUX $0.44 733 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:52 UTC [MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) Hidden $4.57 7,606 BUX $0.44 733 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC [MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) Hidden $4.57 7,606 BUX $0.44 733 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC [MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) Hidden $4.57 7,606 BUX $0.44 733 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC [MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) [tenshi](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/tenshi) $4.57 7,606 BUX $0.44 733 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC [MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) Hidden $4.57 7,606 BUX $0.44 733 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 09:25 UTC [MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) Hidden $4.57 7,606 BUX $0.44 733 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 09:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $4.57 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.1% Remarkable 0.2% Exotic 0.7% classified 1.0% Classified 4.0% Legendary 4.0% restricted 10.0% Covert 6.0% mil spec 74.0% best hit $264 (57.92x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt