--- title: "Supreme Status case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Supreme Status ($21.07) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 81.03% over 341 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e03 rendered: 2026-11-12T10:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Supreme Status](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e03) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Supreme Status A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e03?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e03?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e03) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e03?window=all) Price · $21.07 · 35,110 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $18.97 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.03% · 341 openings, odds method Variance · 8.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 81.83% ±42.69 168 openings 7 days · 86.30% ±32.55 289 openings 30 days · 81.03% ±29.97 341 openings since tracking started · 81.03% ±29.97 341 openings 38.5% 81.8% 125.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e03?window=24h) | 168 | 81.83% ±42.7 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e03?window=7d) | 289 | 86.30% ±32.5 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e03) | 341 | 81.03% ±30.0 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e03?window=all) | 341 | 81.03% ±30.0 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 341 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,508 2,511,728 BUX | 4.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| NiKo (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 667 | $741 1,234,805 BUX | 5.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Sticker \| shroud (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-shroud-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 400 | $470 783,703 BUX | 6.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $197 327,885 BUX | 20.8% | 9 | 6.8 | 1.32× | | [Sticker \| cajunb (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cajunb-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 25 | $107 177,978 BUX | 22.5% | 13 | 13.6 | 0.95× | | [Sticker \| Liazz (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liazz-gold-katowice-2019) | 18.6% | $27.00 44,982 BUX | 26.4% | 61 | 63.3 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| OG (Gold) \| Rio 2022 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-gold-rio-2022) | 25.0% | $8.73 14,544 BUX | 11.5% | 97 | 85.3 | 1.14× | | [Sticker \| Sico (Gold) \| Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sico-gold-paris-2023) | 50.0% | $1.05 1,749 BUX | 2.8% | 161 | 170.5 | 0.94× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e03) [Sticker | Liazz (Gold) | Katowice 2019 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liazz-gold-katowice-2019) Hidden $21.07 35,110 BUX $27.00 44,982 BUX 1.28x 2026-11-11 23:38 UTC [Sticker | Sico (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sico-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $21.07 35,110 BUX $1.05 1,749 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 23:38 UTC [Sticker | Sico (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sico-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $21.07 35,110 BUX $1.05 1,749 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 23:38 UTC [Sticker | Sico (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sico-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $21.07 35,110 BUX $1.05 1,749 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 23:38 UTC [Sticker | Sico (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sico-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $21.07 35,110 BUX $1.05 1,749 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC [Sticker | OG (Gold) | Rio 2022 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-gold-rio-2022) Hidden $21.07 35,110 BUX $8.73 14,544 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC [Sticker | OG (Gold) | Rio 2022 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-gold-rio-2022) Hidden $21.07 35,110 BUX $8.73 14,544 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC [Sticker | Sico (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sico-gold-paris-2023) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $21.07 35,110 BUX $1.05 1,749 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC [Sticker | OG (Gold) | Rio 2022 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-og-gold-rio-2022) Hidden $21.07 35,110 BUX $8.73 14,544 BUX 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [Sticker | Sico (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sico-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $21.07 35,110 BUX $1.05 1,749 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $21.07 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.1% Extraordinary 98.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt