--- title: "Sandstorm Saga case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sandstorm Saga ($5.30) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 7 items with odds, observed 91.59% over 1,011 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e05 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Sandstorm Saga](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e05) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Sandstorm Saga A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e05?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e05?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e05) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e05?window=all) Price · $5.30 · 8,827 BUX Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $4.77 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.59% · 1,011 openings, odds method Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 44 openings · below min 7 days · 94.63% ±24.57 201 openings 30 days · 91.59% ±10.95 1,011 openings since tracking started · 91.59% ±10.95 1,011 openings 10.0% 65.0% 120.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e05?window=24h) | 44 | 63.27% ±52.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e05?window=7d) | 201 | 94.63% ±24.6 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e05) | 1,011 | 91.59% ±11.0 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e05?window=all) | 1,011 | 91.59% ±11.0 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,011 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $439 732,190 BUX | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $49.97 83,250 BUX | 20.9% | 24 | 20.1 | 1.19× | | [Nova \| Quick Sand (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-quick-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $20.33 33,869 BUX | 17.1% | 32 | 40.4 | 0.79× | | [Souvenir MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $15.56 25,922 BUX | 19.6% | 67 | 60.7 | 1.10× | | [Souvenir Nova \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-sand-dune-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $10.98 18,292 BUX | 18.4% | 83 | 80.9 | 1.03× | | [SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-well-worn) | 30.0% | $1.95 3,248 BUX | 12.3% | 292 | 303.3 | 0.96× | | [G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 50.0% | $1.04 1,732 BUX | 10.9% | 513 | 505.5 | 1.01× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e05) [G3SG1 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.30 8,827 BUX $1.04 1,732 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $5.30 8,827 BUX $1.95 3,248 BUX 0.37x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [G3SG1 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.30 8,827 BUX $1.04 1,732 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [G3SG1 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-minimal-wear) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $5.30 8,827 BUX $1.04 1,732 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [G3SG1 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.30 8,827 BUX $1.04 1,732 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [Souvenir Nova | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $5.30 8,827 BUX $10.98 18,292 BUX 2.07x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $5.30 8,827 BUX $1.95 3,248 BUX 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [Souvenir Nova | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-sand-dune-well-worn) [tenshi](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/tenshi) $5.30 8,827 BUX $10.98 18,292 BUX 2.07x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $5.30 8,827 BUX $1.95 3,248 BUX 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [G3SG1 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.30 8,827 BUX $1.04 1,732 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $5.30 | 89.99% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.0% violet 2.0% Mil Spec Grade 4.0% Classified 6.0% Consumer Grade 38.0% mil spec 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt