--- title: "Are you lucky? case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Are you lucky? ($7.91) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 81.72% over 203 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e06 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Are you lucky?](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e06) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Are you lucky? A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e06?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e06?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e06) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e06?window=all) Price · $7.91 · 13,173 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $7.12 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.72% · 203 openings, odds method Variance · 26.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 81.03% ±85.78 138 openings 30 days · 81.72% ±70.73 203 openings since tracking started · 81.72% ±70.73 203 openings -0.5% 221.8% 444.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e06?window=24h) | 8 | 87.09% ±356.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e06?window=7d) | 138 | 81.03% ±85.8 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e06) | 203 | 81.72% ±70.7 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e06?window=all) | 203 | 81.72% ±70.7 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 203 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,643 6,070,071 BUX | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $658 1,096,178 BUX | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $209 348,577 BUX | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $92.42 153,971 BUX | 10.9% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.76× | | [Sticker \| Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) | 19.0% | $12.96 21,591 BUX | 34.6% | 32 | 38.6 | 0.83× | | [Sticker \| Dragon Lore Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-surf-ava-foil) | 35.0% | $4.85 8,080 BUX | 23.9% | 71 | 71.0 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Dragon (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-foil) | 45.0% | $2.84 4,731 BUX | 18.0% | 97 | 91.4 | 1.06× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e06) [Sticker | Dragon (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-foil) Hidden $7.91 13,173 BUX $2.84 4,731 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-11 16:07 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) Hidden $7.91 13,173 BUX $12.96 21,591 BUX 1.64x 2026-11-11 16:07 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) Hidden $7.91 13,173 BUX $12.96 21,591 BUX 1.64x 2026-11-11 16:07 UTC [Sticker | Dragon (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-foil) [BaTaiTenZo](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/BaTaiTenZo) $7.91 13,173 BUX $2.84 4,731 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-11 16:07 UTC [Sticker | Dragon (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-foil) Hidden $7.91 13,173 BUX $2.84 4,731 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Lore Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $7.91 13,173 BUX $4.85 8,080 BUX 0.61x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [Sticker | Dragon (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-foil) Hidden $7.91 13,173 BUX $2.84 4,731 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) [BaTaiTenZo](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/BaTaiTenZo) $7.91 13,173 BUX $12.96 21,591 BUX 1.64x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-foil) Hidden $7.91 13,173 BUX $12.96 21,591 BUX 1.64x 2026-11-10 19:18 UTC [Sticker | Dragon (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-foil) Hidden $7.91 13,173 BUX $2.84 4,731 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-10 19:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $7.91 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.2% classified 0.8% exotic 99.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt