--- title: "Bubble Blast case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Bubble Blast ($9.56) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 85.93% over 178 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e07 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Bubble Blast](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e07) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Bubble Blast A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e07?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e07?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e07) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e07?window=all) Price · $9.56 · 15,920 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $8.60 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.93% · 178 openings, odds method Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 60 openings · below min 7 days · 69.01% ±45.69 111 openings 30 days · 85.93% ±36.08 178 openings since tracking started · 85.93% ±36.08 178 openings 19.5% 82.5% 145.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e07?window=24h) | 60 | 82.48% ±62.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e07?window=7d) | 111 | 69.01% ±45.7 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e07) | 178 | 85.93% ±36.1 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e07?window=all) | 178 | 85.93% ±36.1 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 178 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $271 450,702 BUX | 15.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $70.66 117,719 BUX | 8.2% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.69× | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $70.57 117,569 BUX | 8.2% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $52.60 87,631 BUX | 15.3% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× | | [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $38.60 64,307 BUX | 22.4% | 7 | 8.9 | 0.79× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 10.0% | $9.78 16,293 BUX | 11.4% | 16 | 17.8 | 0.90× | | [Sticker \| Bubble Gum Skill Surf (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bubble-gum-skill-surf-holo) | 20.0% | $5.12 8,529 BUX | 11.9% | 41 | 35.6 | 1.15× | | [PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-field-tested) | 25.0% | $1.53 2,548 BUX | 4.4% | 55 | 44.5 | 1.24× | | [Sticker \| Water Gun sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-water-gun) | 35.0% | $0.59 982 BUX | 2.4% | 51 | 62.3 | 0.82× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e07) [Sticker | Water Gun sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-water-gun) Hidden $9.56 15,920 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC [Sticker | Bubble Gum Skill Surf (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bubble-gum-skill-surf-holo) Hidden $9.56 15,920 BUX $5.12 8,529 BUX 0.54x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC [PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-field-tested) Hidden $9.56 15,920 BUX $1.53 2,548 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC [PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-field-tested) [Puzamah](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Puzamah) $9.56 15,920 BUX $1.53 2,548 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC [M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.56 15,920 BUX $70.57 117,569 BUX 7.38x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [Sticker | Bubble Gum Skill Surf (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bubble-gum-skill-surf-holo) Hidden $9.56 15,920 BUX $5.12 8,529 BUX 0.54x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [Sticker | Water Gun sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-water-gun) Hidden $9.56 15,920 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [Sticker | Bubble Gum Skill Surf (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bubble-gum-skill-surf-holo) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $9.56 15,920 BUX $5.12 8,529 BUX 0.54x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [Sticker | Water Gun sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-water-gun) Hidden $9.56 15,920 BUX $0.59 982 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [Sticker | Bubble Gum Skill Surf (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bubble-gum-skill-surf-holo) Hidden $9.56 15,920 BUX $5.12 8,529 BUX 0.54x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $9.56 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.0% restricted 2.0% pink 5.0% classified 10.0% Remarkable 20.0% mil spec 25.0% High Grade 35.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt