--- title: "Restricted Range case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Restricted Range ($8.65) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 97.11% over 89 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e08 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Restricted Range](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e08) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Restricted Range A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e08?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e08?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e08) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e08?window=all) Price · $8.65 · 14,406 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $7.78 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.11% · 89 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 54 openings · below min 30 days · 89 openings · below min since tracking started · 89 openings · below min 51.0% 91.3% 131.5% **Small sample.** 89 openings and 16.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e08?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e08?window=7d) | 54 | 91.13% ±39.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e08) | 89 | 97.11% ±30.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e08?window=all) | 89 | 97.11% ±30.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 89 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $76.25 127,032 BUX | 29.4% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.50× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-zx-spectron-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $16.24 27,055 BUX | 13.6% | 3 | 5.8 | 0.52× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $10.37 17,276 BUX | 11.3% | 4 | 7.6 | 0.53× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) | 10.0% | $9.64 16,060 BUX | 12.4% | 10 | 8.9 | 1.12× | | [AUG \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-factory-new) | 12.0% | $8.71 14,510 BUX | 13.4% | 13 | 10.7 | 1.22× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-triumvirate-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $5.01 8,346 BUX | 9.7% | 13 | 13.3 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-virus-field-tested) | 22.0% | $2.40 3,998 BUX | 6.8% | 23 | 19.6 | 1.17× | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-bi83-spectrum-field-tested) | 23.0% | $1.17 1,949 BUX | 3.5% | 19 | 20.5 | 0.93× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e08) [StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-virus-field-tested) Hidden $8.65 14,406 BUX $2.40 3,998 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-triumvirate-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.65 14,406 BUX $5.01 8,346 BUX 0.58x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-bi83-spectrum-field-tested) Hidden $8.65 14,406 BUX $1.17 1,949 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-virus-field-tested) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $8.65 14,406 BUX $2.40 3,998 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-bi83-spectrum-field-tested) Hidden $8.65 14,406 BUX $1.17 1,949 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-09 21:26 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-virus-field-tested) Hidden $8.65 14,406 BUX $2.40 3,998 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-09 21:26 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-virus-field-tested) Hidden $8.65 14,406 BUX $2.40 3,998 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-09 21:26 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-virus-field-tested) [vvvinther](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/vvvinther) $8.65 14,406 BUX $2.40 3,998 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-09 21:26 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-virus-field-tested) Hidden $8.65 14,406 BUX $2.40 3,998 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-09 21:24 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-virus-field-tested) [FaLKen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/FaLKen) $8.65 14,406 BUX $2.40 3,998 BUX 0.28x 2026-11-09 21:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $8.65 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 33.5% Restricted 66.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt