--- title: "Radiant Dawn case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Radiant Dawn ($34.59) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 101.53% over 58 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e09 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Radiant Dawn](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e09) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Radiant Dawn A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e09?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e09?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e09) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e09?window=all) Price · $34.59 · 57,632 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $31.13 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.53% · 58 openings, odds method Variance · 10.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 58 openings · below min 30 days · 58 openings · below min since tracking started · 58 openings · below min 17.0% 101.5% 186.0% **Small sample.** 58 openings and 3.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e09?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e09?window=7d) | 58 | 101.53% ±83.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e09) | 58 | 101.53% ±83.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e09?window=all) | 58 | 101.53% ±83.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| suNny (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunny-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 500 | $2,217 3,694,055 BUX | 14.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $255 425,046 BUX | 20.5% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) | 1 in 33 | $218 363,587 BUX | 21.0% | 5 | 1.7 | 2.87× | | [FAMAS \| Sundown (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $109 182,327 BUX | 17.6% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 10.0% | $25.42 42,349 BUX | 8.2% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.21× | | [P90 \| Sunset Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-field-tested) | 11.0% | $17.87 29,771 BUX | 6.3% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.25× | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $11.46 19,092 BUX | 4.6% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.83× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) | 14.0% | $6.51 10,845 BUX | 2.9% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.86× | | [Sticker \| SunPayus (Gold) \| Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunpayus-gold-paris-2023) | 41.8% | $3.47 5,781 BUX | 4.7% | 21 | 24.2 | 0.87× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e09) [Sticker | SunPayus (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunpayus-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $34.59 57,632 BUX $3.47 5,781 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) Hidden $34.59 57,632 BUX $218 363,587 BUX 6.31x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [P90 | Sunset Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-field-tested) Hidden $34.59 57,632 BUX $17.87 29,771 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [FAMAS | Sundown (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-minimal-wear) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $34.59 57,632 BUX $109 182,327 BUX 3.16x 2026-11-11 01:27 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) Hidden $34.59 57,632 BUX $25.42 42,349 BUX 0.73x 2026-11-11 01:25 UTC [Sticker | SunPayus (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sunpayus-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $34.59 57,632 BUX $3.47 5,781 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 01:25 UTC [P90 | Sunset Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-field-tested) Hidden $34.59 57,632 BUX $17.87 29,771 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-11 01:25 UTC [P90 | Sunset Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-field-tested) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $34.59 57,632 BUX $17.87 29,771 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-11 01:25 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.59 57,632 BUX $11.46 19,092 BUX 0.33x 2026-11-11 01:23 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) Hidden $34.59 57,632 BUX $25.42 42,349 BUX 0.73x 2026-11-11 01:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $34.59 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Extraordinary 42.0% restricted 19.5% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% industrial 21.0% mil spec 12.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt