--- title: "Phantom Operative case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Phantom Operative ($5.97) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 47.81% over 355 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0a rendered: 2026-11-12T09:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Phantom Operative](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0a) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Phantom Operative A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0a?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0a?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0a) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0a?window=all) Price · $5.97 · 9,938 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $5.37 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 47.81% · 355 openings, odds method Variance · 59.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 49.09% ±131.92 132 openings 30 days · 47.81% ±80.44 355 openings since tracking started · 47.81% ±80.44 355 openings -0.5% 249.5% 499.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0a?window=24h) | 12 | 61.39% ±437.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0a?window=7d) | 132 | 49.09% ±131.9 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0a) | 355 | 47.81% ±80.4 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0a?window=all) | 355 | 47.81% ±80.4 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 355 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,033 1,720,678 BUX | 38.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $10.07 16,776 BUX | 14.8% | 22 | 28.0 | 0.78× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $9.07 15,110 BUX | 16.7% | 31 | 35.1 | 0.88× | | [Sticker \| Team Spirit (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-spirit-holo-stockholm-2021) | 10.0% | $7.05 11,745 BUX | 13.1% | 27 | 35.5 | 0.76× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 12.0% | $3.79 6,314 BUX | 8.5% | 37 | 42.6 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ M249 \| Spectre (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-spectre-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.85 1,416 BUX | 3.2% | 84 | 71.0 | 1.18× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-spirit-board-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 2.6% | 71 | 71.0 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Phantom (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-well-worn) | 20.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 2.6% | 83 | 71.0 | 1.17× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0a) [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-spirit-board-factory-new) Hidden $5.97 9,938 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [Sticker | Team Spirit (Holo) | Stockholm 2021 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-spirit-holo-stockholm-2021) Hidden $5.97 9,938 BUX $7.05 11,745 BUX 1.18x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-well-worn) Hidden $5.97 9,938 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $5.97 9,938 BUX $9.07 15,110 BUX 1.52x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.97 9,938 BUX $9.07 15,110 BUX 1.52x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-well-worn) Hidden $5.97 9,938 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) Hidden $5.97 9,938 BUX $3.79 6,314 BUX 0.64x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-spirit-board-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $5.97 9,938 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-well-worn) Hidden $5.97 9,938 BUX $0.70 1,166 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) Hidden $5.97 9,938 BUX $10.07 16,776 BUX 1.69x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $5.97 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Extraordinary 0.2% Restricted 27.9% Classified 9.9% Remarkable 10.0% Mil Spec Grade 52.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt