--- title: "Geological Gear case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Geological Gear ($19.12) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 49.69% over 120 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0b rendered: 2026-11-12T09:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Geological Gear](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0b) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Geological Gear A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0b?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0b?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0b) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0b?window=all) Price · $19.12 · 31,850 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $17.21 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 49.69% · 120 openings, odds method Variance · 19.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 112 openings · below min 30 days · 120 openings · below min since tracking started · 120 openings · below min -0.5% 65.5% 131.5% **Small sample.** 120 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0b?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0b?window=7d) | 112 | 50.08% ±80.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0b) | 120 | 49.69% ±78.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0b?window=all) | 120 | 49.69% ±78.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 120 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/krakow-2017-cobblestone-souvenir-package) | 1 in 200 | $1,065 1,774,639 BUX | 31.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-mudder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $245 408,569 BUX | 35.6% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Red Rock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-red-rock-factory-new) | 10.0% | $20.00 33,320 BUX | 11.6% | 18 | 12.0 | 1.50× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 10.5% | $18.35 30,571 BUX | 11.2% | 17 | 12.6 | 1.35× | | [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-field-tested) | 11.0% | $7.56 12,594 BUX | 4.8% | 13 | 13.2 | 0.98× | | [SCAR-20 \| Stone Mosaico (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.63 6,047 BUX | 3.2% | 20 | 18.0 | 1.11× | | [Souvenir MP5-SD \| Dirt Drop (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp5-sd-dirt-drop-factory-new) | 16.5% | $1.50 2,499 BUX | 1.4% | 24 | 19.8 | 1.21× | | [StatTrak™ Negev \| Terrain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-terrain-minimal-wear) | 17.0% | $0.64 1,066 BUX | 0.6% | 15 | 20.4 | 0.74× | | [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-factory-new) | 17.0% | $0.53 882 BUX | 0.5% | 12 | 20.4 | 0.59× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e0b) [P90 | Ancient Earth (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-factory-new) Hidden $19.12 31,850 BUX $0.53 882 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:34 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) Hidden $19.12 31,850 BUX $18.35 30,571 BUX 0.96x 2026-11-11 01:34 UTC [StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-terrain-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.12 31,850 BUX $0.64 1,066 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:34 UTC [SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $19.12 31,850 BUX $3.63 6,047 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-11 01:34 UTC [StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-terrain-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.12 31,850 BUX $0.64 1,066 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [Glock-18 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $19.12 31,850 BUX $7.56 12,594 BUX 0.40x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-terrain-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.12 31,850 BUX $0.64 1,066 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [Souvenir MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp5-sd-dirt-drop-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $19.12 31,850 BUX $1.50 2,499 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-11 01:33 UTC [SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-factory-new) Hidden $19.12 31,850 BUX $3.63 6,047 BUX 0.19x 2026-11-11 01:32 UTC [P90 | Ancient Earth (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-factory-new) Hidden $19.12 31,850 BUX $0.53 882 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $19.12 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Base Grade 0.5% industrial 13.5% Restricted 20.5% Consumer Grade 48.5% Mil Spec Grade 17.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt